hEDGEpoint updates sugarcane and sugar harvest in the Center-South of Brazil to 605 million tons
Sugar
Vegetables
Published Mar 20, 2024
Tridge summary
Unfavorable weather conditions are causing a downward trend in sugar production in the Center-South region, leading to a reevaluation of sugarcane volume projections. Despite this, a significant drop in the 24/25 season is not expected. The region could see an 8.4% drop in production, deepening the deficit forecast for 24/25 from 2.3 Mt to 2.7 Mt. Trade flows are expected to be maintained with a reduced deficit of 1.1 million tons. However, trading may remain monotonous unless there is an unforeseen failure in the region or a deterioration in the Northern Hemisphere's harvest. Trading could be in the 20-22 c/lb range, with potential upside to 23 c/lb.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.
Original content
The main reason for supporting sugar prices continues to be the downward bias that production in the Center-South region is facing. “The precipitation in February, combined with the unfavorable weather in the first half of March, reduced optimism and led us to reevaluate our sugarcane volume projections. In this report, we will explore various scenarios and assess their impact on global supply and demand, as well as trade flows”, says Lívea Coda, Sugar and Ethanol analyst at hEDGEpoint Global Markets. “But first, it is important to note that although soil moisture and accumulated precipitation indicate a possible steeper decline in productivity compared to our estimates, the effects of the drought were not uniform across the entire South Central region. was significantly more affected than the southern part. Furthermore, from October to December, precipitation and soil moisture levels remained higher than in 2020, before the 21/22 crop failure. Therefore, we believe that it is ...
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