Malaysia: Rising Palm Oil Yield Signals Start Of Seasonal Supply Uptrend

Published Apr 14, 2025

Tridge summary

In March, Malaysia's palm oil production saw a slight increase to 1.387 million metric tons, in line with expectations and maintaining the same figure as the previous year. However, exports hit a decade-low at 1.006 million MT. The closing inventory also saw a 3% month-on-month rise to 1.563 million MT, but was 9% lower year-on-year and 16% below the 10-year average. Despite the monthly decrease, Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices in March remained steady at RM4,740 per MT, showing a 12% year-on-year increase. Kenanga Research predicts that palm oil prices will ease with the seasonal supply increase, but prices for CY25-26 are expected to remain steady at RM4,200 and RM4,000 per MT, respectively, due to potential edible oil supply deficit in CY25-26. The sector maintains an 'OVERWEIGHT' rating, with the Black Sea and Danube region's grain sector to be discussed at the 23 International Conference BLACK SEA GRAIN.KYIV on April 24 in Kyiv.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

MPOB’s March 2025 production of palm oil in Malaysia rose month-on-month (MoM) to 1.387 million metric tons (MT), but remained flat year-on-year (YoY), according to a Kenanga Research report. This figure aligns with both Kenanga’s and the broader market’s expectations, signaling the start of the seasonal supply uptrend, with increased Fresh Fruit Bunch (FFB) harvests anticipated from March through September or October. However, the report notes that exports reached a decade-low of 1.006 million MT for March. Consequently, closing inventory increased by 3% MoM to 1.563 million MT, although it was down 9% YoY and 16% below the 10-year average. The closing inventory was also 7% higher than Kenanga’s forecast but within consensus estimates. Despite these fluctuations in production and exports, March’s Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices held steady at RM4,740 per MT, showing a slight decrease of 0.4% MoM but a significant increase of 12% YoY. Overall, 1QCY25 production, exports, and closing ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult