More sugar from the Center-South of Brazil in 2023/24

Sugar

Brazil

Published Jan 27, 2023

Tridge summary

With raw sugar availability tight through 2023 and futures close to 20c, Brazil's performance will be closely watched this year. A stronger start for sugar production Unlike the past crop, sugar should continue to offer better returns than ethanol when the crop starts in April. In 2022, ethanol prices stayed above/close to sugar until mid-June.

Original content

With raw sugar availability tight through 2023 and futures close to 20c, Brazil's performance will be closely watched this year. A stronger start to sugar production Unlike the past crop, sugar should continue to offer better returns than ethanol when the crop starts in April. In 2022, ethanol prices stayed above/close to sugar until mid-June. As a result, mills prioritized ethanol production over sugar for the first time since 2019. In 2023, we expect mills to prioritize sugar, meaning that 2.2 million tons more sugar should be produced in Q2' 23 compared to 2Q'22. We also think more cane will be available for crushing in 2023/24. After 3 years of below-average rainfall, the sugarcane fields have started to recover. Agricultural productivity in 2022/23 increased by 8%, reaching 73.5 tons of sugarcane/hectare. Total cane crushing is expected to reach almost 550 million tons - a 5% year-on-year increase. The rains in 2022 were good and, conservatively, we expect a 6% increase in ...

Source: Portal Do Agronegocio