New Trump China Tariff Threats Send Grains Complex Down

China has sent all grains downward. President Trump escalated his anti-China rhetoric last Friday, but history suggests there may be a climbdown, resulting in a market recovery. Lower wheat production is now expected in Australia, and this dry weather seems to be the only potential upside for the wheat market. With lack of fundamental news from the US thanks to the shutdown, the market will focus on how the US/China trade war evolves this week. In any case, there is no supportive outlook for grains with ample supply of both corn and wheat. There is no change to our estimate for Chicago corn to average USD 4.18/bushel during the 2025/26 (Sep/Aug) crop. The average price since September 1 is running at USD 4.16/bushel. The market trading began trading without US statistics or any real insight on fundamentals last week as the release date for the WASDE came and went. There were also no export sales, no COT for a second consecutive week and no crop progress report. There was a mildly ...