The article outlines an expected downturn in French pork production, attributed to diminishing productivity gains and supply constraints within France and the broader EU. This scenario is poised to foster some degree of price resilience. A significant shift is anticipated as China, a previously dominant force in the pork market, is likely to diminish its import demand due to ramped-up domestic production. This development, coupled with the competitive edge held by Spain, Brazil, and the United States, poses a challenge to France's pork export capabilities, further strained by domestic consumption patterns and a production downturn. Additionally, the article signals potential challenges for the slaughtering/cutting and processing sectors, driven by persistent pork prices and a continued decline in swine production.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by a state-of-the-art LLM model and is intended for informational purposes only. It is recommended that readers refer to the original article for more context.
Original content
Given this trend and lower gains in productivity, a further drop in French production seems very likely. This supply constraint, both in France and in the EU, will likely favor some price resilience. In any case, China, which has long been the price driver in the pork market, no longer seems capable of playing this role in 2024. Chinese production has developed, leading to an increasing reduction in the country's imports. In addition, Spain, Brazil, and the United States (the latter two with extremely competitive prices) are well established in this highly competitive market. France's export capacity tends to be restricted in proportion to the reduction in production. Domestic consumption is also traditionally seen as the natural outlet for French production and export is often seen as only for releasing surpluses. Even under favorable conditions, the quantities exported tend to reach a "peak" very quickly, as we saw in 2020-2021. The ...
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