Palm oil stocks in March signal price declines to come

Published Apr 14, 2025

Tridge summary

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) forecasts a seasonal rise in palm oil yields and stocks of crude palm oil (CPO) from April, estimated to reach 1.38 million tonnes by the end of March. Despite steady CPO prices in March, analysts predict a seasonal decline in edible oil prices in Q2 due to the end of Brazil's soybean harvest. The MPOB maintains a steady CPO price forecast for 2025 and a slight decrease for 2026, amidst expectations of higher palm oil production and competition with other vegetable oils. However, weak export numbers and a shift to a discounted CPO price despite higher yields and stocks indicate challenges in the palm oil market.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), which had earlier recorded a rise in production in March, estimated the ending stocks of crude palm oil at 1.38 million tonnes at the end of March, marking the start of a seasonal uptrend, with palm oil yields set to rise soon and continue through October, The Star reported. The crude palm oil (CPO) price held steady at RM4,740 per tonne in March. However, with Brazil’s soybean harvest set to end soon, edible oil prices are set to see a seasonal decline in the second quarter of this year. “The seasonal decline was expected. The recent decline in crude prices continues to provide a cushion for biodiesel demand, but its impact on CPO prices remains limited. We maintain the average CPO price at RM4,200/tonne in 2025 and RM4,000/tonne in 2026. Overall edible oil prices should remain stable, but the price of palm oil relative to soybean oil should decline; hence our slightly lower CPO price forecast for 2026,” it said. “CPO futures fell to their ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult