Pressure on soybean premiums: market reacts to harvest and higher supply

Published May 5, 2025

Tridge summary

The 2024/25 soybean harvest in Brazil and Argentina is advancing quickly due to favorable weather, leading to an increased supply and reduced export premiums at Brazilian ports. This coincides with the start of the 2025/26 planting season in the U.S., impacting market dynamics. Despite the drop in export premiums, some sellers remain hopeful for future price recovery through forward contracts. By late April, Brazil had harvested 94.8% of its soybean area, surpassing last year's 90.5%, while Argentina had harvested 23.6%. The strong supply from South America and a positive outlook for U.S. cultivation are causing a price adjustment in the international soybean market.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The 2024/25 soybean harvest continues at a fast pace in Brazil and Argentina, driven by good weather conditions. This scenario, combined with the start of planting for the 2025/26 harvest in the United States, has put pressure on export premiums for the oilseed at Brazilian ports, according to an analysis by Cepea. The increase in the availability of the grain, mainly in the spot market, coincided with the expiration of financial commitments at the end of April. This factor increased the interest in selling on the part of producers, creating an imbalance between supply and demand and contributing to the drop in export premiums. Despite the downward movement, Cepea researchers note that many sellers are still betting on a price recovery in the coming months. As a strategy, there is a preference for negotiating forward contracts, hoping for better marketing opportunities. In the field, the numbers show significant progress. According to a survey by Conab, as of April 26, 94.8% of ...

Source: Agrolink