Rabobank report upbeat on U.S. fruit and tree nuts

Updated May 4, 2023
As with producers of most crops, U.S. fruit and tree nut growers have faced challenges including higher input costs and logistical challenges in recent years, but according to a Rabobank report, there are positive developments for the 2023-24 season. The RaboResearch report cites a drop in input prices, a better water outlook in California and improved logistics. Tree nut prices, pushed downward due to elevated inventories, are seeing a much-needed lift, according to the report.
U.S. fruit and tree nut producers know that when it comes to global fertilizer prices, a rising tide lifts all boats. The cost structure of the fertilizer complex is driven by high-demand commodities such as corn, soybeans, and wheat. Given the relatively small percentage of global demand for macronutrients that fruit and tree nuts represent, they are subject to these major agri-commodities’ influence on prices. In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war and Belarusian sanctions, global fertilizer prices skyrocketed in 2022, exacerbating global affordability to levels comparable to 2008. As was the case then, the resulting demand destruction (along with today’s improved trade dynamics) precipitated a fall in fertilizer prices as markets moved from panic to trading closer to fundamental supply and demand. Since the third quarter of 2022, fertilizer price momentum has been largely downward, the consequence of which can often be a slow proliferation through the value chain of the ...
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