Rapeseed rally loses momentum in the global market

Published Jul 10, 2024

Tridge summary

Paris rapeseed futures have reached their highest level since November 2022 due to poor early harvests in the EU and Ukraine caused by unfavorable growing conditions. The Nov-24 contract closed at €514.50/t and the May-25 contract closed at €515.75, both rising significantly over the past eight trading days. This bullish trend is attributed to downward revisions in EU rapeseed yield, tightness in the European market, and a larger rapeseed crop in Canada. However, an increase in Malaysian palm oil supply and a decrease in soybean oil strength have led to a loss in strength for the vegetable oils complex. Any further information on the rapeseed harvest in Europe will continue to influence the market direction, although the anticipated record soybean production in Brazil is expected to cap any major gains in the oilseed complex in the new year.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Sign up to receive the Weekly Market Report and Grain Market Daily from AHDB. Last Friday (05 July), Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-24 and May-25) closed at highs not seen since November 2022. The Nov-24 contract closed at €514.50/t after rising €45.75/t over the previous eight trading days, while the May-25 closed at €515.75, rising by €41.50/t over the same period. The main driver for this bullish run was news of poor early harvests in EU (e.g. France) and Ukraine as a result of the continued pressure from unfavourable growing conditions. Considerable heat and dryness in the east of Europe, and substantial rainfall and poor sunlight in the west, has led to downward revisions for the EU rapeseed yield (European Commission). In the latest EU Mars report (24 June), the rapeseed yield was forecast down 2% from May’s estimate at 3.16t/ha. Tightness in the European market, as well as a larger rapeseed crop in Canada, has supported a sizable premium over the Canadian market. In addition ...

Source: Ahdb