Record safra limits reaction of soybean prices in Brazil

The recent appreciation of soybeans in the international market has attracted attention, but does not reflect, so far, an effective tightening of supply in the global physical market. According to analysis by TF Agroeconômica, the upward movement in Chicago is mainly sustained by expectations of higher Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans, with a strong speculative component. The physical fundamentals continue to point to ample availability. Brazil is advancing towards a record crop of over 180 million tons, with accelerated harvesting and already intense exports since February. In Argentina, despite climatic problems, there is still no confirmation of a relevant shortfall. At the same time, the market itself begins to take profits in the soybean complex, with a retreat in oil and stability in meal, signaling that the rise occurs more due to narrative than a real supply restriction. In Brazil, the large physical supply and the pace of harvesting keep FOB prices pressured or sideways, ...