News

Russia/Ukraine grain export deal promises major benefits for poor countries

Sunflower Seed
Published Jul 25, 2022

Tridge summary

If Russia keeps to the deal it has signed with Ukraine allowing for the resumption of grain exports, much needed relief will be provided to importing countries, including many in Africa. The relief would be significant as Ukraine has roughly 22 million tonnes of grain (wheat, maize, sunflower seed and other grains) in silos. It has not been able to ship these to export markets because of Russia’s invasion, which disrupted infrastructure and the attacks on vessels transporting goods.

Original content

Ukraine is a notable player in global grain and oilseeds export market. And thus, the blockage of exports has contributed to the notable increase in agricultural commodity prices observed since the war started. The aim of the “grain deal”, signed between Kyiv and Moscow on July 22 2002, was to change this chaotic situation. Under the agreement Russia promised not to attack grain vessels in the Black Sea region. But this promise didn’t last long. Less than 24 hours after the deal was signed Russian missiles struck the critical Ukrainian port of Odesa. The attack is likely to undermine the deal, a multinational effort to avert the global food crisis. In addition, grain traders and merchants might be reluctant to be involved in the zone if they consider it to be too risky. This would ultimately defeat the deal. But if Russia keeps its word, the benefits will be immediate. Grain prices could soften as more grain supplies become available to the world market. Overall this would be a ...
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