According to Ricardo from ABPA, after facing the biggest challenge in the industry's history—a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza—the industry is expected to return to normal.
"Despite the enormous challenges faced by the poultry production industry, we remain optimistic about the performance by the end of this year. The global market demand for Brazilian animal protein remains strong. The same is true for the domestic market in Brazil, where the consumption of all three types of protein is expected to increase," Ricardo said.
Brazilian Chicken Meat
Brazilian chicken meat production is expected to reach 15.4 million tons in 2025, a 3% increase from 14.972 million tons in 2024. By 2026, production is expected to grow further to 15.7 million tons, an increase of 2%.
Exports are expected to remain stable: a slight decrease of 2%, with an estimated 5.2 million tons exported in 2025 (5.295 million tons in 2024), and 5.5 million tons in 2026, a 5.8% increase from the previous year.
In the domestic market, chicken meat supply is expected to reach 10.2 million tons in 2025, up from 9.678 million tons in 2024, an increase of 5.4%. Supply is expected to remain stable in 2026.
Per capita consumption of chicken meat in Brazil is expected to increase from 45.5 kilograms per person in 2024 to 47.8 kilograms per person in 2025 (+5.1%), and remain at the same level in 2026.
"This year, we overcame the most severe crisis in history; a commercial poultry farm detected highly pathogenic avian influenza. The situation was temporary and has now been controlled, and most of the suspended export markets have resumed exports. Negotiations are still ongoing, so we expect export performance to remain at a positive level similar to 2024. On the other hand, thanks to strong domestic market demand, per capita consumption has recovered to historical levels, approximately 47 kilograms," Ricardo analyzed.
Brazilian Pork
For pork, domestic production in 2025 is expected to reach 5.42 million tons, a 2.2% increase from 5.305 million tons in 2024. By 2026, production is expected to grow further to 5.55 million tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous year.
Exports are also expected to maintain a growth trend: exports are expected to reach 1.45 million tons in 2025, a 7.2% increase from 1.353 million tons in 2024. By 2026, exports are expected to reach 1.55 million tons, a 7.0% increase.
Domestic pork supply in Brazil is expected to remain stable, with an estimated 4 million tons each year for 2025 and 2026. Similarly, per capita consumption is expected to stabilize at 18.8 kilograms per person in 2026, with an estimated 18.7 kilograms in 2025 and 18.6 kilograms in 2024.
"Brazilian pork production, consumption, and exports are expected to reach new highs in 2025, with all indicators setting records. Against this backdrop, the reconfiguration of Brazil's export markets: with the Philippines as the main market, along with the development of Mexico, Singapore, and South American countries, is expected to further consolidate Brazil's position in the global trade rankings..."