News

Triple-dip La Nina may further heighten supply issues in global agriculture markets

Rice
Wheat
Maize (Corn)
Soybean
Published Sep 15, 2022

Tridge summary

The ongoing La Nina climate phenomenon may extend into its third year in a rare event to become what is called a triple-dip La Nina. This is likely to extend the uncertainty currently prevailing across agriculture markets as supply estimates for various food commodities faltered this year, largely driven by weather adversities in top producing countries. Prices of wheat, corn and soybeans have remained volatile with an upward edge.

Original content

Weather, although not the only factor, has been a major driver of these volatilities. La Nina is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November and decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023, making it the first triple-dip La Nina of this century, according to latest forecasts. The phenomenon has varying impacts on agriculture across the globe and it particularly impacts Brazil, Argentina, the US and Australia — key suppliers of corn, soybeans and wheat. Corn, soybeans in Brazil The southern regions of Brazil are prone to dry weather conditions during La Nina. In marketing year 2020-21, Brazil’s corn output fell sharply due to La Nina conditions. First-corn crop production in MY 2021-22, which comprised more than 21% of the country’s total production, also fell due to dryness caused by La Nina. The first-corn crop in Brazil is planted from September through December and harvested February-May, while the second-corn ...
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