Ukrainian barley exporters may lose the Chinese market

Published 2024년 7월 11일

Tridge summary

The article provides an overview of the current barley prices in Ukrainian seaports, noting a potential decrease due to seasonal trends and the risk of losing the premium for barley certification for Chinese trade. It highlights the need for Chinese demand to maintain the premium and suggests a possible return to higher prices in the fall. The article also touches on the competitive global barley market, with the EU, Romania, France, and Russia as key players, and mentions Ukraine's efforts to export barley to China, with significant contracts already in place.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Currently, conditional prices for barley in Ukrainian seaports are $154-157/t, and grain certified for sale to China is valued at $162/t. Seasonal patterns show a downward trend in prices, but there is also a risk of losing the premium for barley certification for trade with China. VAR analysts write about it. "Chinese quality" barley trades at a premium of $5-7 per ton. There are already contracts for Ukrainian barley for July-August, but there are currently no further contracts. Whether Chinese buyers will return in the fall remains an open question. If at the beginning of August China does not enter the market with demand for barley, then the premium may disappear for those who have certified their products for the Chinese market," experts say. In general, analysts believe that there is a risk of prices falling to $140-150 per ton under the pressure of harvesting, but there is a possibility of a return to the level of $165 per ton in Odesa ports in the fall. "On the global ...

Source: Elevatorist