Increasing global price spreads between sunflower oil and soy oil

The decline in Ukraine’s sunflower production inevitably leads to an increase in world sunflower seed /sunflower oil prices. This is no surprise because Ukraine is the main exporter of sunflower oil (SFO). The country’s share in world trade used to be at 45-46%, being at 40% in MY 2021/22. The USDA forecast for MY 2022/23 looks quite pessimistic: Ukraine is predicted to lose its leadership position with its share in the global trade down at 33%. UkrAgroConsult estimates the export of sunflower oil at a higher level than USDA. The current 2022/23 MY is an exception to the rule. A sharp drop in the sunflower harvest in Ukraine did not lead to growth, but, on the contrary, to a drop in prices for both sunflower and oil on the world market under the influence, first of all, of the war. The situation with the harvest in Ukraine is catastrophic, a drop of 34% does not happen often. But the world balance looks completely different: record production and supply of oilseeds and vegoils, a ...