Rabobank's report forecasts an increase in gross margins for all winter crops in 2024-25, with wheat expected to see the largest rise of 14% from the previous season, due to lower production costs. Barley and canola are also predicted to see a rise in gross margins, which could influence growers' planting decisions. Despite a predicted drop in wheat prices, a larger reduction in variable costs is expected to boost gross margins. However, Rabobank's Mr Pistoia warns that the improved outlook will depend on weather impacts and notes that the upcoming winter cropping season should see a rebuild close to historical levels, despite being down on the seven-year-average for wheat, barley, and canola.
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GROSS margins for all winter crops in 2024-25 are set to increase on the back of a lower cost of production, according to Rabobank. The report, Australia’s winter crop gross margins, forecasts that the 2024-25 wheat crop will see the largest increase in gross margins from the previous season, at around 34 percent, up 14pc on 2023-24. The average gross margin for barley is estimated at 33pc, a rise of 8pc on last season, and canola is expected to see a similar jump, at 26pc, an increase of 9pc. Report author, RaboResearch grain and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia said these figures could have a significant bearing on growers’ planting decisions for the outcoming season. He said this trend could favour wheat plantings, with the 2024-25 crop projected to have a gross margin of $281 per hectare, compared with an average $158/ha in 2023-24. “The $281/ha gross margin forecast situates wheat as potentially the most profitable of the three major crops for 2024, together with barley,” Mr ...
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