2022/23 Global Orange Production Set to Decrease; Challenges and Opportunities

The production of oranges, tangerines, lemons, limes, and grapefruit will be impacted by adverse weather conditions and rising agricultural input costs. Leading citrus-producing countries, including the United States, China, Morocco, Turkey, Mexico, and Argentina, are expected to down their citrus output. According to the biannual USDA Citrus World Market report, global production of all citrus varieties is forecast to be lower in 2022/23 than in the previous year. According to the same report, global orange production for the 2022/23 campaign is estimated to decrease by 5% to 47.5 million mt, as lower production in the European Union and the US drives the reduction.

Adverse weather conditions such as hurricanes and floods, lower yields due to citrus greening, and rising input costs in all main orange-producing countries have all come together to project a lower global orange output. US production is forecast to fall by 21.5% to 2.5 million, the lowest level in over 56 years. In Florida, orange yields continue to decline in Florida due to fruit drop caused by citrus greening and unfavorable weather conditions with high winds and hurricanes. California is forecast to produce as twice as many oranges as Florida.

Source: Tridge, USDA

In the European Union, production is expected to decline 13% to 5.9 million mt due to dry and warm summer conditions in 2022, mainly in Spain and Italy. It is estimated that the Italian orange harvest could drop in volume by up to 20% as many citrus producers have decided to change to more tropical crops due to the weather experienced in Sicily. EU citrus availability is projected to depend on the increase in import volumes from non-European suppliers, which is expected to increase.

In Brazil and Mexico, orange production is forecast to go down due to unfavorable weather expected in both countries. Brazil projects to reduce its output by a moderate 2.3% to 16.5 million, while Mexico is forecast to drop its orange production by 7.2% to 4.2 million mt due to prolonged drought in northeastern Mexico.

In Turkey, orange production is estimated to fall by 20% to 1.4 million mt due to a frost and winterkill that affected the beginning of the orange blossoming period in March 2022 in the Antalya region.

In Morocco, production is estimated to drop by a substantial 34.5% to 750 thousand mt due to lower yields caused by unfavorable weather during the growing season and water shortages. In Egypt and South Africa, however, both countries are expecting an increase in their orange output. Egypt's production is estimated to rise a substantial 20% to 3.6 million mt, driven by an increase in planted area and favorable weather during flowering, which favored fruit sets. While South Africa's orange production is forecast to increase by 3% percent to 1.7 million mt as a result of favorable weather and slightly higher area harvested.

Due to the increase in domestic production, Egyptian orange exports are expected to increase in volume. Higher orange supplies will allow Egypt to gain a more significant market share to meet the high global demand for oranges, particularly in Europe, where Egypt is expected to keep increasing its leadership as a supplier. Other top export markets are expected to be Russia, Saudi Arabia, and India. South Africa is also projected to increase its orange-supplying leadership for the 2022/23 season. Exports of oranges already reached a record high in the 2021/22 season for the third year in a row and are now sold in more than 100 countries around the world. However, the European Union is expected to remain the largest export market as the EU will keep increasing its orange dependence from non-European origins.