Japan Is Likely to Import More Frozen Potatoes in MY 2021/22

Fresh Common Potato

Published Nov 25, 2021

High temperatures and droughts in Japan have reduced the expectation for MY 2021/22 potato harvest. The expected fall in production has pushed up frozen potato imports to meet the domestic demand for french fries and chips. During the first 6 months of MY 2021/22, Japan’s potato imports increased by 8.46% and they are expected to increase even more in the coming months. Japan also imported 246.95 thousand metric tons of french fries during this period to meet the demand.

For MY 2021/22 (April - March), it is anticipated that the fresh potato production in Japan will fall by 18% to 1.8 million metric tons in comparison to the previous MY. This fall comes after high temperatures and drought during the months of June and July in Hokkaido which is one of the largest potato-producing regions in Japan. Potato uses in Japan can be categorized into - processing, table potato, starch potato, feed, seed potato, and loss. In MY 2020/21, about 25% of domestic potatoes went toward processing, out of which 70% were used for potato chips and 14% for frozen potato products like French fries.

Japan is among the fastest-growing frozen potato importing countries with a share of 7.4% during 2020 in the global frozen potato imports. Looking at the previous year’s trends, the volume of Japanese processed potatoes imports is likely to increase in MY 2021/22 as the domestic production is expected to fall down and create a shortage in the market. As per the estimates of FAS, Tokyo’s MY 2021/22, it is anticipated that the demand for frozen potatoes and dehydrated potato products will increase this year. The U.S. has a share of 52.4% in Japan’s frozen potato imports and the remaining 45.1% are imported from China followed by New Zealand (0.8%), Belgium (0.7%), and Colombia (0.6%).

During the first 6 months of MY 2021/22, Japan’s potato imports increased by 8.46% in comparison to the same period of MY 2020/21. Within frozen products, in MY 2020/21, Japan imported 246.95 thousand metric tons of french fries out of which 73.5% came from the U.S., 20.2% from the European Union (E.U.) (mainly Belgium and the Netherlands), and 6.0% from Canada. The increasing share of the U.S. in Japan’s french fry imports has been driven by the U.S.- Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA), which started on January 1, 2020. USJTA provides a stepwise tariff reduction for French fries, and complete tariff elimination starting April 2021. Thanks to the USJTA, U.S. exports of frozen French fries now face the same tariff environment as E.U. and Canadian exports to Japan.

Source: ITC TradeMap. HS Code: 071010 Potatoes, uncooked or cooked by steaming or by boiling in water, frozen.

Even though the volume of frozen potato imports increased, they remained below the pre-pandemic levels of MY 2018/19 and MY 2019/20. With the opening of restaurants and cafes, it is likely that the imports will come back to pre-pandemic levels to meet the booming demand. Furthermore, the easing of logistics issues and constraints will make the trade more smooth and hassle-free. As Japan anticipates limited potatoes, the outlook for imports from the U.S. and other leading potato countries remains positive in the coming months.

Sources

ITC TradeMap. HS Code: 071010 Potatoes, uncooked or cooked by steaming or by boiling in water, frozen.
Tridge. Trade Data.
USDA. Updates on Potato Production and Consumption in Japan.