Lower Export of Arumanis Mango from Indonesia Is Expected in the 2022/23 Season

Seasonality of Arumanis Mango in Indonesia

Source: Tridge

This year's production of the Arumanis mango variety has dropped sharply based on the local insight of Yun Primawan, Tridge Engagement Manager in Indonesia. The Arumanis Mango season In Indonesia usually starts in August, with peaks in October and November. Estimates are that this year's harvest of Arumanis mango in Indonesia will be reduced by as much as 40% compared to last year due to erratic weather since entering the rainy period. The rainy season usually starts in October and lasts until March, with November, December, and January receiving the most rainfall. The earlier start of the rainy season has affected Arumanis mangoes production in the East Java province, the major producing region in Indonesia for this variety.

Adverse weather has not only influenced the volume of fruits, but the quality of fruit has also declined. Increased moisture has caused faster ripening of fruits and, therefore, a shorter shell life. Consequently, due to the given situation, traders are focused more on the local market to avoid the risk of damage to the fruit. This is deterring the export of Arumanis mangoes to oversea countries,

Share of Export Destinations for Indonesian Mangoes

Source: Tridge

In terms of value, the export of mangoes from Indonesia has seen strong growth of 244.41% from 2016-2021, to a total of USD 72.84M. China and Hong Kong were the dominant markets, with 94% export share and a combined value of USD 65.54M in 2021. Even in terms of five-year growth, these two countries dominate, with China's massive expansion of 41678.76% since 2016 and Hong Kong of 486.01%. One of the main reasons for increased export values was the rising rupiah exchange rate. Due to continuing dollar strength, the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) has reached its lowest level against the US dollar (USD) since Q1 of 2020. IDR has weakened about 8-9% up to Rp 15,700 for 1 USD in the last two quarters hence putting more pressure on importers while exporters were in a more privileged position.

Indonesia is ranked fifth in the world's mango production, after India, China, Thailand, and Mexico. Besides China’s lockdowns due to Covid-19 affecting trade, higher costs of inputs and logistics, unpredictable weather, and pests and diseases remain the main problem for production and export to specific markets. Local scientific institutions and the Agriculture Ministry's Agriculture Quarantine Agency in Indonesia have worked hard to eradicate Bactrocera occipitalis, a fruit fly that is a quarantine pest in Japan. Mangoes that fruit flies attack will rot slowly and eventually drop from the tree. As a result of this pest, mangoes from Indonesia often experience rejections from importing countries, such as Japan and Australia. To assist the mango industry, the government of Indonesia has started incentive programs that assist with production inputs, control of environmentally friendly plant pests, post-harvest facilities and infrastructure, and processing.

Although in season 2022/23, adverse weather affected the production of Arumanis mangoes from Indonesia and export plans, support from the Indonesian government should limit the risks in the upcoming years. Indonesia plans to diversify its markets, especially for Arumanis mangoes, and expectations are high for Malaysia and Singapore, according to Tridge Engagement Manager Yun Primawan.