The impact of Belarus’ ban on imports of some foods from Western Countries

Belarus

Published Dec 10, 2021

The Belarussian government has imposed a ban on selected food products from the EU, the UK, the US, and several other countries. The imports of selected categories of meat, dairy, vegetables, fruit, confectionery, and salt imports from these countries have been banned for six months, starting January 1st. The value of these banned categories imported by Belarus from the EU27, the UK, the US, and Canada amounted to USD 460 million in 2020. Fruit and nuts will by far be impacted the most, as imports by Belarus from this category amounted to USD 225 million in 2020 from the same countries. Belarus is also a gateway for many of these fruits into Russia, and how these bans will impact re-exports to Russia is still unclear.

What led to the bans?

Since 2020, several sanctions have been imposed on Belarus by the EU and the US. This came after a disputed presidential election in which Alexander Lukashenko took power. Since then there have been more political spats, but the recent crises on the Belarussian borders with Latvia, Lithuania, and especially Poland resulted in more tit-for-tat sanctions and embargos. On Tuesday (December 7th) the Belarusian government announced a ban on imports of several foodstuffs from what Lukashenko referred to as “the collective West”.

Which foods will be banned?

Below follows a list of the products that will be banned. According to the Belarussian government, more products can be banned if relationships between these countries deteriorate even further.

Source: National Legal Internet Portal of the Republic of Belarus, ITC Trade Map

Which countries are on the list?

Imports of the above-mentioned food products from the EU, the UK, the US, Canada, Norway, Albania, Iceland, North Macedonia, and Montenegro will be banned.

Of these countries/regions trade with the EU has the largest market share by far. In 2020, Belarussian imports from the EU27 of these soon-to-be-banned foods amounted to USD 445 million. The other countries on the list made up a much smaller proportion. In 2020, Belarus’ imports of the soon-to-be-banned foods were USD 2.8 million from the UK and USD 12.6 million from the US. Other countries on the “black list” have limited trade with Belarus, or trade is not centered around the items that will be banned, which means only minor adjustments to their exports.

According to the Belarussian government, for the first 10 months of 2021, Belarus imported food worth USD 530 million from these countries. When only the foods that are to be banned are considered, for the first 6 months of 2021, Belarus imported around USD 206 million from the EU27, the UK, the US, and Canada.

Which products will be impacted the most?

Fruits and nuts (HS Code 08) is the category that will be impacted the most. In 2020, the value of fruit and nut imports by Belarus from the EU was valued at a huge USD 216 million. Especially apples and pears that enter Belarus through Poland will be disrupted. Many of these apples and pears find their way to Russia through Belarus and traders will look for a way to keep these fruit going to Russia.

Another category of concern is food preparations (HS Code 210690). In 2020, USD 84 million of unspecified food preparations were imported by Belarus from the EU, UK, US, and Canada, this includes flavored syrups, chewing gum and other food preparations not elsewhere specified. The EU exported vegetables to a value of USD 73 million to Belarus in 2020, which will also need to find a new market.

*Some products are excluded from these categories. Refer to the “List of Food Products that will be banned”
** 2021 Q1-Q2 only available for countries that have already reported exports to Belarus
Source: National Legal Internet Portal of the Republic of Belarus, ITC Trade Map

*Some products are excluded from these categories. Refer to the “List of Food Products that will be banned”
** 2021 Q1-Q2 only available for countries that have already reported exports to Belarus
Source: National Legal Internet Portal of the Republic of Belarus, ITC Trade Map