In marketing year (MY) 2021/22, Ukraine’s wheat exports touched new records thanks to the changing market dynamics of wheat-producing giants in the world. The country exported 15.4 million tons of wheat (as of 20th December 2021) in MY 2021/22 (June - July) which is 27% more than the volume recorded during the same period in MY 2020/21. USDA projects that Ukraine’s wheat production will touch 24.2 million tons by the end of MY 2021/22. Based on the current production volumes and stock of wheat, Ukraine can export roughly 4 million tons of milling wheat and 6 million tons of feed wheat more in the current MY without impacting its own demand-supply dynamics.
In general, Ukraine’s wheat exports were mainly driven by disruption in supplies from other major wheat exporting countries like Russia, the United States, and Canada. Major reasons and situations which pushed up the exports are as follows:
Source: Tridge, Price Charts.
While Ukraine enjoyed its position as the go-to wheat exporter this year, the higher volume of exports has driven up the milling wheat (wheat flour) prices in the country. There are concerns regarding the limited supply of wheat and the pressure it would create on the domestic prices of high-quality bread-making wheat. It is expected that the price of bakery products in Ukraine may increase by as much as 35% by September 2022 if a similar trend continues. According to recent sources, Ukraine is likely to consider limiting milling wheat exports in the upcoming year to manage the domestic prices.