W1 Coffee Update: Global Coffee Productions Expects a 4.4% YoY Growth in the 2023/24 Season, Surging Demand from China and Strong Exports in Vietnam

USDA Predicts Global Coffee Production to Reach 171.4 Million Bags in 2023/24

According to the United States Department of Agriculture, global coffee production is forecasted to be 171.4 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags in the 2023/24 season, increasing by 4.2% year-on-year (YoY). The rise in production in Arabica-dominant countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Ethiopia is anticipated to compensate for the decrease in Indonesia, a significant Robusta producer in Southeast Asia. In particular, global Arabica coffee production for the 2023/24 season is expected to rise by 9.4 million bags, reaching 97.3 million bags. On the other hand, Robusta production is expected to decline for the second consecutive year, totaling 74.1 million bags compared to 76.6 million bags in the previous season, marking the lowest level in the past four seasons.

Asian Coffee Markets See Limited Trade Activities Due to Weak Demand for Vietnamese Robusta Beans

Asian coffee markets saw limited trade activities in W1 due to weak demand for Vietnamese robusta beans. Indonesian premiums remained unchanged due to limited inventories. Farmers from the central highlands of Vietnam were selling the beans for USD 2.75 to USD 2.79/kg, down slightly from last week's price of USD 2.75 to 2.81. Demand from international buyers is low, and buyers are mainly local roasters. Farmers sell the beans gradually, in small quantities.

China's Coffee Consumption in the 20223/24 is Forecasted to Reach 5 Million Bags

The demand for coffee in China has increased significantly, particularly among young professionals and students in big and medium cities. China's coffee consumption in the 2022/23 season reached 3.08 million 60-kg bags, indicating a 15% YoY increase. The USDA predicts the 2023/24 season consumption will hit 5 million bags. This trend opens up opportunities for global coffee suppliers. Notably, Brazil, a major coffee producer, has witnessed a threefold increase in shipments to China in 2023.

Vietnamese Coffee Exports Volume Reached Nine-Month High in Dec-23

According to Vietnam's General Bureau of Statistics, Vietnamese coffee export volume reached a nine-month high in Dec-23, totaling 190 thousand metric tons (mt) shipped. This represents a significant increase of 59.3% compared to Nov-23, but a slight decrease of 3.5% compared to Dec-22. The export value in Dec-23 was USD 538 million, reflecting a month-on-month (MoM) increase of 51% and a YoY rise of 26.4%. The average export price stood at USD2,834/mt, a decrease of 5.2% MoM, but a significant YoY increase of 31.1%.

The accumulated export volume in 2023 reached 1.61 million metric tons (mmt), decreased by 9.6% YoY, with an average price of USD2,604/mt, increasing by 14.1% YoY. Due to the rise in export prices, export value increased by 3.1% YoY, reaching a new record of USD 4.18 billion.