W2 Olive and Olive Oil Update: Lower Yields, Higher Prices, and Restock Concerns

Surge in Spanish Olive Oil Production, Córdoba's Incremental Growth

The latest market update from Agri-Food Cooperatives of Spain as of December 31 provides an insightful overview of the olive oil and table olive sector in the ongoing 2023/24 marketing campaign. Notably, the olive oil production for Dec-23 reached 321.2 thousand metric tons (mt), contributing to a cumulative total of 584.8 thousand mt for the 2023/24 campaign. The report estimates oil shipments to the market at approximately 96.8 mt, with exports for Dec-23 are projected to be around 64.6 thousand mt and 32.2 thousand mt directed to the domestic market. Imports of 30 thousand mt have been estimated, pending confirmation of customs data. Olive oil output from mills in Dec-23 stands at 95.5 thousand mt, accumulating to 211.2 thousand mt in the 2023/24 campaign. The end-of-campaign stock figures show 631.8 thousand mt, marking a significant month-on-month (MoM) increase of 255.3 thousand mt.

Regarding table olives, accumulated stocks from the previous campaign ended at 321.9 thousand mt. The volume of packed olives reached 405.3 thousand mt, with Dec-23 witnessing 4.6 thousand mt. Imports and exports for table olives are reported at 12.6 thousand mt and 111.6 thousand mt, respectively, and domestic consumption is estimated at 45.4 thousand mt. The accumulated stocks for table olives as of December 31 are 564 thousand mt, showing a MoM decrease of 28.6 thousand mt.
In Dec-23, olive oil production in the province of Córdoba surpassed 94 thousand mt, reflecting a marginal YoY increase compared to the 82.5 thousand mt recorded in the same period of the previous campaign. The ongoing campaign, currently at 70%, is projected to yield approximately 143 thousand mt, aligning with the Andalusian regional government's capacity expectations, albeit with a lower fat yield. Accumulated departures in Córdoba totaled 33.2 thousand mt, while final stocks stood at 80.4 thousand mt. Even though 30% of stocks launched to the Spanish market, the current levels are insufficient for the substantial consumption demand.

Olive Oil Prices Surged 69.3% YoY in Spain in 2023

In 2023, extra virgin olive oil in Spain experienced a notable average YoY price surge of 69.3% in major supermarkets, as highlighted by a comprehensive study conducted by Consumers in Action (FACUA) across 18 brands available at Mercadona. Price hikes are not solely attributable to increased product costs at the source but also to suppliers’ stocking. Examining data from January 3, 2023, to January 2, 2024, the study considers various formats of extra virgin olive oil available for sale in supermarkets.

Global Olive Oil Prices Triple in Past Three Years

The global olive oil market has witnessed a nearly threefold price increase compared to 2020, largely due to a substantial 26% reduction in olive yield compared to 2022. This discrepancy suggests potential market dynamics influenced by resellers. Key producers such as Spain experienced a significant YoY decline of 56%, yielding 6.5 mmt, while Italy and Portugal reported decreases of 27% (2.1 mmt) and 39% (2 mmt), respectively. Notably, Portugal managed to produce 150 thousand mt more oil than in 2022, showcasing an intriguing olive oil market aspect. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global olive production for 2023 is projected to be 19.3 million metric tons (mmt), culminating in a total world olive oil production of 3.05 mmt in the same year.