W3 Pork Update: USDA Cuts Global Production Forecast by 1% Amid Resilient US Exports Surge

USDA Reduces World Pork Production Forecast by 1%, Reflects Global Shifts

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has made a 1% downward revision in the global pork production estimate for 2024 to 114.2 million metric tons (mmt) compared to the previous estimate of 115.5 mmt. Representing a decrease of 300 thousand metric tons (mt) from the initial projection, this alteration stems from expectations of a decline in major producing countries, including the European Union (EU), China, and Brazil. The EU's estimate saw a reduction of 450 thousand mt to 20.7 mmt, influenced by evolving consumer preferences and continued regulatory pressures impacting the domestic pork market. In China, pork production is estimated at 55.2 mmt, reflecting a reduction of 750 thousand mt from the previous estimate and 1.7 mmt less than last year. The subdued prospects for China are attributed to weak demand, impeding the expansion of domestic production capacity. For Brazil, the pork production forecast was scaled back by 150 thousand mt, from 4.825 mmt to 4.675 mmt, considering the demand dynamics in China.

Furthermore, the reduced demand from China has also led to a downward adjustment in the global export forecast for pork in 2024, declining by 2% to 10.2 mmt. This reduction is observed across key players, with Brazil's export forecast standing at 1.5 mmt, down from the previous estimate of 1.53 mmt in Oct-23. Similarly, the export forecasts decreased marginally for the EU and the US from 3.2 mmt to 3.1 mmt and from 3.15 mmt to 3.12 mmt, respectively. The export dynamics for these countries are intricately tied to the decrease in production. Notably, the US has maintained a degree of export stability, buoyed by its robust exports to key importers such as Canada and Mexico, mitigating the overall impact of reduced global pork production.

US Market Resilience Evident Amid Global Dynamics

In Nov-23, the US witnessed a notable upswing in pork exports, totaling 258.6 thousand mt, reflecting a substantial 5% YoY increase. This figure marked the highest volume recorded in the preceding six months. The corresponding export value amounted to USD 737.4 million, signifying a 2% year-on-year (YoY) increase, achieving the highest valuation since May-21 and ranking as the seventh-highest on record. From Jan-23 to Nov-23, pork exports demonstrated a robust performance, reaching a total of 2.64 mmt, an 8% YoY surge. The accompanying export value stood at USD 7.39 billion, reflecting a notable 5% YoY increase.

Mexico, a pivotal market, set a record value for pork exports in Nov-23, reaching USD 221.3 million, denoting a 5% YoY expansion. The export volume witnessed a significant uptick of 14% YoY, totaling 100.3 thousand mt, the second-largest volume on record, surpassed only by Oct-23. Despite the emergence of new suppliers, the US managed to capture an 84% share of the pork market imported by Mexico in 2023.

Central America experienced remarkable growth in pork exports, particularly in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador, setting both monthly volume and value records in Nov-23. The volume surged by an impressive 35% YoY to 16.6 thousand mt, while the corresponding value saw a robust increase of 37% YoY to USD 51.3 million. Similarly, South America witnessed record performances in Colombia and significant growth in Chile and Peru, propelling pork exports to the highest levels in two years. Volume spiked by 55% YoY to 15 thousand mt, ranking as the sixth-highest on record, while the value soared by 58% YoY to USD 43.2 million, the third-highest on record.

South Korea experienced a noteworthy month in pork exports, recording a 19% YoY increase to 17.4 thousand mt, with the export value rising by 18% YoY to USD 57.7 million. The US managed to increase its share of South Korean imports from 26% to 32% YoY, compensating for the declining market share of the EU. Pork exports to Oceania displayed an impressive recovery trend in 2023, with Nov-23 exports nearly tripling YoY to 6.4 thousand mt, with an impressive 186% YoY increase. The export value witnessed a substantial rise of 128% YoY, reaching USD 23.3 million. Despite stable YoY figures, pork exports to Japan in Nov-23 remained consistent at 26.9 thousand mt, with a slight increase in value to USD 111.6 million. However, pork exports to mainland China and Hong Kong, primarily beef varieties, faced a substantial downtrend in Nov-23. This contributed to a 4% YoY decrease in exports for the first eleven months of 2023, totaling 46.7 thousand mt, accompanied by a 6% YoY decline in value to USD 1.18 billion.