W2 Rice Update: Global Rice Prices Expected Remain High in 2024, and Positive Exports In Vietnam and Thailand

Global Rice Prices Expected to Remain High in 2024

According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), the price of 5% broken rice from Vietnam and Thailand stood at USD 653 per metric ton (mt), while the price of 5% broken rice from Pakistan was at USD 593/mt on January 9, 2024. This represented a significant increase compared to the prices in the same period of 2023. In particular, Vietnamese 5% broken rice increased by over USD 200/mt. According to local traders, rice prices are expected to remain high in 2024 due to the current supply and demand. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts the world rice production at 518.1 million metric tons (mmt), while the consumption and inventories are expected to reach 525 mmt in the 2023/24 season. As a result, the year-end stocks for the 2023/24 season are predicted to be at 167.8 mmt, the lowest level in six years.

Vietnam's Rice Exports Surged by 38.4% YoY, Reaching USD 4.78 Billion in 2023

Vietnam exported approximately 8 mmt of rice in 2023, valued at USD 4.78 billion. This represented a substantial surge of 38.4% in value compared to 2022, establishing rice as the third-highest contributor to export turnover within Vietnam's agricultural sector. In addition, Vietnam also set a historical record in rice export prices, reaching an average of USD 663/mt and ranking first among major exporting countries worldwide. Furthermore, the country's rice exports to crucial markets increased sharply, with the Philippines emerging as the largest market, accounting for USD 1.75 billion and reflecting a 17.4% year-on-year (YoY) increase. In addition, rice exports to China surged by 30.7% YoY, reaching USD 530 million. These accomplishments underscore Vietnam's significant presence and competitiveness in the global export market.

Thailand's Rice Exports Surged 23.3% YoY in Nov-23 Amid Soaring Global Prices

Thailand's rice exports in Nov-23 amounted to 1.01 mmt with a value of USD 657.6 million, marking a substantial increase of 19.9% month-on-month (MoM) and 23.3% YoY due to the prevailing 15-year highs in global rice prices. Critical markets for Thai rice include Indonesia, the Philippines, Algeria, Iraq, Malaysia, Japan, Brazil, and Cameroon. The accumulated exports in the first eleven months of 2023 exhibited a notable 14.7% YoY increase, reaching 7.945 mmt, with the export value soaring by 28.9% to USD 4.61 billion. The Thai Rice Exporters Association projects that around 800 to 900 thousand mt of rice have been exported in Dec-23, expressing optimism in surpassing the initial export target of 8.5 mmt for the entire year. As of December 27, 2023, the price of Thailand's 5% broken rice stood at USD 659/mt, surpassing Vietnam's range of USD 653 to 657/mt.