In the first 11 months of 2023, Russia's sunflower seed imports for sowing decreased by 34% year-on-year (YoY), totaling 15.1 thousand metric tons (mt). Despite the decrease in imports, Russia achieved a record gross sunflower harvest of 16.7 million metric tons (mmt), marking a 2% YoY increase. Sunflower oil exports also increased substantially by 37% YoY to 319 thousand mt, with India and China emerging as the leading importers.
Russian farmers harvested approximately 16.69 mmt of sunflower for grain in 2023, marking a 2% YoY increase. It is anticipated that the export of oil and fat products from Russia in the 2023/24 season could surpass the previous season's record. In the 2022/23 season, Russia exported a record 3.85 mmt of sunflower oil, and the export potential for the upcoming season is estimated to be above 4 mmt.
Russian agricultural producers may reduce the sunflower cultivation area in the upcoming season. While oilseeds offer higher margins, challenges may arise due to climate dependence for soybeans and the need to observe crop rotation for sunflowers. The recent increase in cultivation area was attributed to the use of imported hybrids with a fast-growing season, supplied by some international research and development companies, although their share was relatively small.
From Sept-23 to Dec-23, Ukraine exported nearly 2 mmt of sunflower oil, marking a 4% YoY increase compared to the same period in the previous marketing year. In Dec-23 alone, Ukrainian sunflower oil exports reached almost 672 thousand mt, representing a 25% month-on-month (MoM) increase and the highest monthly volume since Jan-22. This Dec-23 figure is the second-highest in Ukraine's export history. Additionally, most Ukrainian sunflower oil exports were shipped to Romania and Turkey, with these regions collectively accounting for 37% of the total supplies.
A shipment of sunflower seeds, comprising 220 containers weighing around 5 thousand mt, has arrived in the Urals region of Russia from China. The total value of the goods is over USD 7 million, and an additional 54 containers with seeds are anticipated to arrive in the Urals in the coming days.
Sunflower prices in India have risen by 10% in the past two weeks due to shipment delays amid the ongoing Red Sea crisis. The Black Sea, a key route for sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia, is frozen, causing delays and increased costs. Ports in the Black Sea are not operating at full capacity, resulting in delays in the arrival of sunflower oil. Traders anticipate that prices may not immediately decrease, as shipping problems persist.