In W28 in the orange landscape, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) July 12 crop production indicates reductions in 2022-23 orange estimates, with the United States (US) all-orange projected at 2.52 million metric tons (mmt), a 1% decrease from the previous forecast and 26% from the 2021-22 final utilization rate. The Florida all-orange forecast, at 15.9 million boxes, was up 1% from the previous forecast but down 62% from last season's final utilization. The California all-orange forecast is 44 million boxes (1.76 mmt), a 2% decline from the previous forecast but a 13% increase from last season's utilization, while the Texas all-orange forecast is 1.13 million boxes (48 thousand metric tons), an 8% increase from the previous forecast and significantly higher from last season's utilization.
The US orange production decreased from 41.2 million boxes in 2022/23 to 15.85 million boxes, indicating a continued decline from the 2021/22 season. However, the USDA predicts a 1% increase in Florida orange production for Jul-23, while production of non-Valencia oranges remains unchanged. In addition, the US has become increasingly reliant on Brazilian orange juice, with the share rising from 19% in 2021/22 to 31% in 2022/23. This increase is attributed to Florida's declining orange production, mainly due to persistent greening disease and hurricanes. As a result, Florida's orange crop harvest is approaching its lowest level since the 1930s, causing a 33% drop in frozen concentrated orange juice supply and a 16% decline in Not from Concentrate (NFC) supply. Furthermore, the US orange juice market is experiencing a 57% year-on-year (YoY) increase in the Mintec Benchmark Price for Brazilian Orange Juice Concentrate, reaching a total value of USD 3,270/mt at the end of Jun-23.
In Jun-23, European Union (EU) orange prices remained at USD 117.89/100kg (EUR 105/100kg), slightly lower than the previous month. The total EU orange imports reached 86.9 thousand mt, with Spain being the largest producer at around 3.6 thousand mt, while Italy, Portugal, and Greece were the other large orange producers. Meanwhile, the Citrus Growers Association (CGA) seeks further trade discussions between South Africa and the EU due to the implementation of new regulations for orange exports in the EU. These rules stipulate that farmers must store their produce below two degrees Celsius. This requirement could limit approximately 20% of locally cultivated orange exports from South Africa to Europe. The decision by the EU was influenced by concerns over citrus black spot and false codling moth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The South African domestic citrus industry may encounter financial losses of USD 27.6 thousand due to the imposition of these requirements, increased cooling costs, and the potential unmarketability of the fruit.