W28: Soybean Oil Update

In W28 in the soybean oil landscape, on Monday, July 10, soybean oil futures for August delivery on the Chicago stock exchange experienced a significant increase of 4.5% to USD 1,438/metric tons (mt). This surge is attributed to declining United States (US) soybean inventories and higher demand from the biodiesel industry. Additionally, the increase in the price of Malaysian palm oil, driven by reduced stock growth in June and activated exports in July, provided further support. However, on Wednesday, July 12, the August soybean oil contract closed down 1.07% at USD 64.63. Soybean oil sales in the US for the week ending July 6 were 1,200 mt, showing a significant decline from the previous week and the four-week average, with Mexico purchasing 1,000 mt and Canada purchasing 200 mt. Cumulative soybean oil exports stand at 124,400 mt, which is lower than the same period in 2022, which saw exports totaling 686,600 mt.

In the 2023/24 crop year, global vegetable oil output is expected to reach a record level. Production of rapeseed, soybean, and palm oil will increase, while sunflower oil production is expected to decline. Soybean oil production is expected to rise by 3.7% to 62.4 million metric tons (mmt), potentially reaching a new record. China is the largest soybean oil producer with 17 mmt, heavily reliant on seed imports, followed by the US with 12.3 mmt. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the world prices of vegetable oils decreased by 2.4% month-on-month (MoM) in June and constituted the lowest value since Nov-20, standing at an average of 115.8 points. International palm oil prices experienced a second consecutive monthly decrease, while soybean oil prices rebounded compared to the previous month.

Lastly, in Bangladesh, despite the government's reduction of soybean oil prices by USD 0.092/liter, consumers have not experienced any relief as traders have yet to adjust their prices. As per the newly set prices, the bottled soybean oil was supposed to drop by USD 0.092 to USD 1.65/liter and the loose soybean oil by USD 0.074 to USD 1.46/liter. However, traders are still selling at the previous prices (USD 1.74/liter for bottled and USD 1.52-1.56/liter for loose) because they have not received soybean oil marked with the new prices. They will only sell at the new prices when the companies release oil at the adjusted rates into the market.

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