W3 Canola/Rapeseed Update: USDA Boosts Global Rapeseed Production Forecast to 87.1 mmt for 2023/24 MY

USDA Raises Global Rapeseed Production Forecast to 87.1 mmt

In its Jan-24 report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its global rapeseed production forecast for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) by 100 thousand metric tons (mt) to 87.1 million metric tons (mmt). However, the export estimate remained unchanged.

Russia Records Significant Surge in Rapeseed Oil Exports in 2023

Russia experienced a 72% year-on-year (YoY) surge in rapeseed oil exports, reaching 1.7 mmt in 2023. The revenue from these exports grew by 20% YoY. China emerged as the primary buyer, importing 1.46 mmt, reflecting a 2.2-fold YoY increase and a 53% YoY growth in value. While European countries remain the traditional importers, their overall share is decreasing. Notably, exports to Latvia and Norway decreased, while Turkey and Belarus featured among the top five buyers, with Turkey experiencing a 62% YoY decrease in imports and Belarus observing an increase in imports.

Irkutsk, Russia, Increased Rapeseed Exports to China in 2023

The Irkutsk region in Russia witnessed a four-fold increase in export volume of oilseeds in 2023 compared to 2022, with rapeseeds constituting the largest share. The primary destination for these exports is China, as reported by the regional government on January 16. According to the regional project "Export of Agricultural Products," the increase in oilseeds in 2023 reached 29.2 thousand mt, equivalent to 187.9% of the planned value. The overall gross volume of oilseed production amounted to 113.3 thousand mt, with rapeseed oil contributing 110.8 thousand mt to this total.

Ukraine's Rapeseed Oil Exports to EU Doubled in 2023/24 MY

From July 1, 2023, to January 14, 2024, Ukraine experienced a 23% YoY increase in vegetable oil exports to European Union (EU) countries, totaling almost 1.4 mmt, up from the previous season's 1.126 mmt. Specifically, shipments of rapeseed oil doubled, reaching 93.19 thousand mt.

Arctic Air Invasion Raises Concerns for Ukraine's Winter Rapeseed

The invasion of arctic air masses in Ukraine since January 3 raises concerns about the condition of winter rapeseed. Approximately 10 to 13% of the total winter rapeseed area is potentially at risk due to the extreme weather conditions. However, short-term cooling and the absence of critical temperature indicators favor an optimistic forecast for plant health. The Ukraine rapeseed forecast is maintained at more than 4 mmt, with the potential for a harvest surpassing the previous three-year average if a more pessimistic scenario does not unfold.

Kazakhstan Reports 162.87 thousand MT Rapeseed Stock as of January 1, 2024

As of January 1, 2024, oilseed stocks in Kazakhstan exceeded 1.9 mmt, with rapeseed accounting for 162.87 thousand mt, according to the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Australia's Canola Exports Surged 43% MoM in Nov-23

Australia's canola exports in Nov-23 reached 544 thousand mt, marking a 43% month-on-month (MoM) increase. Major shipments were directed to Germany (129.9 thousand mt), the United Arab Emirates (119.5 thousand mt), and France (118.2 thousand mt). However, the current export volume is notably lower than Nov-22's 761.7 thousand mt. Forecasts anticipate Dec-23 oilseed exports to be around 598 thousand mt. The overall canola export for the first quarter of 2023/24 MY is expected to be 20% less than the same period in 2022/23 MY due to a reduction in the oilseed harvest, estimated at 5.8 mmt.