W3 Coffee Update: China Emerges as the Global Leader in Branded Coffee Market, and Coffee Production in Brazil Expected to Rise 5.5% YoY

Raw Common Coffee Bean

Vietnam

Published Jan 26, 2024

Vietnam's Coffee Exports Reached 95.77 Thousand MT in First Half of Jan-24

In the first half of Jan-24, Vietnam's coffee exports totaled 95.77 thousand metric tons (mt), generating a turnover of nearly USD 283 million, reflecting a 0.3% month-on-month (MoM) increase in volume and a 4.6% MoM increase in value. Compared to Jan-23, it reflects a 4.2% increase in volume and a 39.7% increase in value. The average export price was USD 2,955/mt, a 2.3% increase from the previous month and a significant 34.2% increase from the same period of 2023.

China Becomes World's Largest Branded Coffee Market

According to the International Coffee Organization, China's coffee consumption has doubled in the last two decades, reaching 2.8 million bags in 2022. The country's coffee imports from Brazil also saw a significant increase, with 1.48 million bags purchased in 2023, a 278.6% rise from 2022. As a result, China has become the sixth-largest buyer of coffee from Brazil. In addition, China surpassed the United States (US) to become the world's largest branded coffee market, with 49,690 physical stores across the country.

Coffee Production in Brazil Expected to Rise 5.5% YoY in 2024 Due to Improved Weather Conditions

The National Supply Company forecasts a 5.5% year-on-year (YoY) increase in Brazil's coffee production, reaching 58.08 million bags (60 kilograms) in 2024, attributed to favorable weather conditions and positive biennial cycles. However, this still falls short of the record 63.1 million bags produced in 2020. The land dedicated to coffee cultivation is expected to increase by 0.8% YoY in 2024, reaching 2.25 million hectares (ha).

In 2023, Brazil's coffee exports amounted to 39.2 million bags, experiencing a 1.3% YoY decrease, attributed to low inventories resulting from reduced production in 2021 and 2022. Despite the reduction in exports, Brazil remained the world's largest supplier of coffee in 2023.