W3 Wheat Update: USDA Boosts Global Wheat Production Forecast to 784.91 MMT in 2023/24 MY; India Sets Sights on Record 114 MMT Wheat Harvest

Global Wheat Production Estimate for 2023/24 MY Revised Upward

In its Jan-23 report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased global wheat production forecasts for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) by 1.9 million metric tons (mmt) to 784.91 mmt. This adjustment involved upward revisions for Russia and Ukraine but a decrease for China, with predictions for Brazil and Argentina remaining unchanged. The estimate for world consumption was raised by 1.78 mmt to 796.44 mmt, notably increasing for the European Union (EU) by 1 mmt and India by 1.25 mmt. Moreover, the global export forecast was raised by 2.35 mmt to 209.54 mmt. This included increases for Ukraine by 1.5 mmt to 14 mmt, the Russian Federation by 1 mmt to 51 mmt, Canada by 0.5 mmt to 24 mmt, and Australia by 0.5 mmt to 19 mmt. Conversely, the forecast for EU exports was reduced by 1 mmt to 36.5 mmt.

EU Soft Wheat Exports Down 11% YoY in 2023/24 MY

As of January 7, 2024 soft wheat exports from the EU in the 2023/24 MY, which began in Jul-23, reached 15.84 mmt, indicating an 11% year-on-year (YoY) decline, according to data from the European Commission (EC). Romania emerged as the leading EU soft wheat exporter, having shipped 4.07 mmt, followed by France with 3.36 mmt, Poland with 2.34 mmt, Bulgaria with 1.67 mmt, and Lithuania with 1.49 mmt. The EU's wheat exports have faced stiff competition from Russia, particularly in Algeria, although the gap compared to the previous season has slightly narrowed recently, partly due to increased French shipments to China.

India Eyes Record Wheat Harvest in 2023/24 MY

India is poised for robust wheat production in the 2023/24 MY, reaching 114 mmt due to the expanded coverage area. In the 2022/23 MY, wheat production set a record at 110.55 mmt, surpassing 107.7 mmt of the previous year. The sowing of wheat, the primary winter crop, has been completed in top states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Punjab. Notably, over 70% of the total wheat area in Punjab and Haryana has been cultivated with climate-resistant seeds this year. The combined wheat cultivation area in these two states is approximately 5.9 million hectares (ha).

US Weekly Wheat Sales Soared to 707.60 Thousand MT

In the United States (US), weekly wheat sales for the 2023/24 harvest reached 707.60 thousand metric tons (mt), significantly surpassing the previous week and the four-week average, as reported by the USDA. This figure exceeded market expectations, which anticipated sales between 150 and 500 thousand mt. For the entire commercial year, the US has already committed 16.10 mmt of wheat, compared to 15.39 mmt in the previous week and 15.53 mmt during the same period last year. The USDA's latest estimate projects total wheat exports to be approximately 19.73 mmt for the 2023/24 MY.

USDA Doubles Saudi Arabia's Wheat Harvest Estimate for 2023/24 MY

The USDA has revised its estimate for Saudi Arabia's wheat harvest in the 2023/24 MY (Jul-23 to Jun-24) to 1.2 mmt, doubling the previous forecast from Dec-23. This new projection is also 1.9 times higher than the 2022/24 MY production and 3.2 times the five-year average. The significant increase is due to the country's food security department's policy of offering local farmers high prices to boost production and enhance food security. Moreover, the area under wheat is estimated at 200 thousand ha, 3.3 times higher than the previous estimate, the five-year average, and twice the figure for the last season. However, the yield is estimated at 6 mt/ha, 40% lower than the previous forecast, 4% below last season, and 2% below the five-year average.