In W30 in the soybean landscape, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects 2023/24 soybean production in South America to reach 227.2 million metric tons (mmt). This indicates a significant increase of 33.1 mmt (17%) compared to the 2022/23 season. This positive soybean production outlook in South America was heavily affected by drought in several soybean-producing countries. Brazil is expected to produce 163 mmt of soybeans, Argentina 48 mmt, Paraguay 10 mmt, Bolivia 3.30 mmt, and Uruguay 2.90 mmt. The USDA emphasizes that the main soybean suppliers in 2023 would be Brazil, the United States (US), Argentina, China (with 20.5 mmt), India (with 12 mmt), Paraguay, and Canada (with 6.7 mmt), among others. Brazil is expected to climb one place to the fifth-largest soybean producer in the world if the USDA's projections are realized, leaving Canada in the sixth position.
Soybean prices in the Brazilian market rebounded in Jul-23 due to improved external conditions and the Chicago Commodity Exchange (CBOT) futures performance. Contracts maturing in Nov-23 rose 4.07%, reaching USD 2.92 per bushel, with reference above USD 14.20 at month's maximums. The increase in CBOT prices is driven by the weather, with low rainfall and high temperatures impacting the US crop. According to Safras and Mercado, Brazilian soybean exports are projected to reach 99 mmt in 2024, an increase of 4% year-on-year (YoY). Soybean crushing is also estimated to reach 55 mmt in 2024, a 3% YoY increase. The total soybean supply for the 2024 season is expected to increase by 7% YoY, reaching 171.531 mmt. Meanwhile, soybean demand is projected to grow by 4% YoY, reaching 157.7 mmt. Consequently, final stocks are expected to rise by 70% YoY from 8.13 mmt to 13.83 mmt.
The USDA reports strong US soybean exports for the 2022/23 crop in the week ending July 20, reaching 198.5 thousand metric tons (mt). This marks a significant increase compared to the previous week and a 73% growth over the previous four-week average. US soybean shipments were mainly destined for the Netherlands, Germany, China, Indonesia, and Mexico. However, some cancellations were registered by undisclosed destinations (112.8 thousand mt) and Egypt (63 thousand mt). Additionally, sales for the 2023/24 season totaled 544.6 thousand mt. US soybean purchases were primarily destined for China, Mexico, Egypt, Bangladesh, and other undisclosed destinations. Shipments during the same period also showed a positive performance, reaching 379.6 thousand mt, with the Netherlands, Germany, Mexico, Spain, and Indonesia being the main destinations.
Lastly, soybean prices in Russia experienced a slight increase in W30 due to delayed reactions to price changes in the sunflower market and growing interest from processors. The market in the South of Russia was relatively illiquid due to ongoing harvesting activities, with oil extraction plants showing greater interest in rapeseed. However, more active contracting was observed in the central regions and major players were increasing their purchase prices. This situation benefited major players from higher marginality in the market.