In W31 in the rice landscape, Tridge’s analysis indicates that the Indian ban on non-basmati rice exports on July 20 sparked concerns in the global rice market. The move aimed to curb high domestic prices and secure domestic supplies. This action came after a 20% export tariff on non-basmati rice in Sep-22, contributing to a record 22.3 million metric tons (mmt) of exports in 2022. This led to a 11.5% domestic price increase in 2023 year-on-year (YoY) and a 3% surge in Jul-23. India's rice planting season faced challenges due to uneven monsoon patterns, delayed planting and damaged crops.
Experts view the Indian non-basmati rice export ban as politically driven, tied to looming elections and concerns about food inflation. While this ban doesn't include basmati rice, non-basmati varieties constitute 25% of India's total exports, impacting global markets. The ban triggered price spikes in Vietnam and Thailand. Amidst global uncertainties like the Ukraine conflict, Russia's grain initiative withdrawal, and adverse weather in China and Pakistan, this export ban could exacerbate inflation and potential hardships. Other countries, like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Russia, are also implementing export bans. Despite exemptions and continued exports from other nations, these developments emphasize the need for stability in the global rice market.
In the Asian rice market, Thai 5% broken rice prices surged to a 15-year peak, between USD 627/mt and USD 630/mt in W31 from USD 545/metric ton (mt) in W30. According to Bangkok traders, the rise led to a slowdown in sales, with expectations of new supply entering the market by the end of Aug-23. Despite this, Thailand aims to achieve its 2023 export target of 8 mmt but is closely monitoring the situation in India. Following India's export ban on non-basmati white rice, the 5% broken parboiled rice prices in India escalated to a record between USD 450/mt and USD 455/mt, largely due to reduced demand caused by high prices.
The 5% broken rice price in Vietnam reached a 15-year high from between USD 550/mt to USD 575/mt in W30 to between USD 590/mt and USD 600/mt in W31. Ho Chi Minh City traders attributed this sharp increase to the elevated demand from exporters and processors amidst Indian and other countries' export restrictions. In this uncertain market situation, traders remain cautious about the rice price trajectory, expressing uncertainty about the extent of further increases. Additionally, the domestic rice price in Vietnam surged to between USD 0.29/kilogram (kg) and USD 0.3/kg over the past two weeks, driven by robust demand.
Lastly, the Cambodian rice market is experiencing an unprecedented price surge, reaching record highs due to India's ban on non-basmati rice exports. This situation presents both opportunities and risks for the Cambodian rice industry. While it offers a chance for substantial profits for farmers and businesses, it also poses concerns for domestic consumers as rice prices continue to rise. Traders and businesses are actively accumulating goods, and although this benefits farmers and enables new contracts, the upward price trend impacts consumers. Old rice, once sold between USD 0.24/kg to USD 0.29/kg, is now fetching USD 0.34/kg. Meanwhile, short-term rice varieties registered prices rise from between USD 0.19/kg and USD 0.24/kg to between USD 0.24/kg and USD 0.29/kg, highlighting the complex dynamics at play.