W32: Maize (Corn) Update

In W32 in the maize (corn) landscape, experts expect the global packaged corn on the cob market to increase from USD 2.2 billion in 2023 to USD 2.9 billion by 2030, at an annual growth rate of 3.4%. Similarly, the frozen sweet corn segment is projected to grow by 3.1% year-on-year (YoY), reaching a market value of USD 1.8 billion by 2030. Additionally, the fresh-pack segment is anticipated to experience consistent growth of 4% YoY over the next eight years, supported by ongoing post-pandemic recovery. Notably, the United States (US) holds a substantial market share, estimated at USD 600.3 million in 2022. China, the second-largest global economy, is forecasted to grow by 5.3% and achieve a market size of USD 571.5 million by 2030. The global economic and market landscape in 2023 is expected to be influenced by the Russian-Ukrainian war, global inflation, changes in China's COVID-19 policies, supply chain disruptions, global trade tensions, and potential recession risks.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that European Union's (EU) corn production for the 2023/2024 season is projected at 59.7 million metric tons (mmt). This is a 6% decrease of 3.7 mmt compared to the July estimate but a 14% increase over the low harvest of 2022/23. The estimated harvest area stands at 8.2 million hectares (ha), a reduction of 400 thousand ha compared to the July estimate, 7% lower than in 2022/23 and 8% below the five-year average. The EU corn yield is predicted at 7.28 metric tons (mt)/ha, a 2% decrease from the July estimate but still a 23% improvement from 2022/23. Jul-23 witnessed extreme heat and dryness in Southern Europe, impacting maize development during critical phases like flowering and grain formation. This adverse weather led to a reduction in corn acreage. As a result, farmers in countries like Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary opted for winter crops like wheat, rapeseed, and barley due to their suitability for the region's wetter and colder conditions.

Tridge’s data analysis indicates that Brazilian corn prices stood at USD 4.23/kilogram (kg) at the end of Jul-23, a significant 33% increase over a three-week period. The upward trend was driven by strong global corn demand. Brazil is expected to surpass the US in corn exports due to a record corn harvest. However, farmers are prioritizing sorghum and soybean sales while holding back on corn sales. This strategy maintains the market's strength. However, the potential for further price gains in the Brazilian corn market is constrained.

Lastly, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA) expected Argentina's 2022/23 corn crop harvest to progress by 8.3% in W32, reaching 80.9% of the total sown area. The BCBA also notes that the commercial corn harvest advanced significantly across the national agricultural area, with average productivity of around 83.83 bags/ha. This average productivity surpasses the 83.33 bags/ha for the first time in 2022/23 but is still 40.83 bags/ha lower than the five-year average. This leaves Argentina’s 2022/23 corn production forecast of 34 mmt unchanged from the previous estimate but a notable 18 mmt lower than the 2021/22 harvest. Argentina's corn crop assessment is currently rated at 13% as good or excellent, 45% as fair, and 42% as fair or poor. Furthermore, 52% of the area is reported to have adequate or excellent water conditions, while 48% is characterized as regular or dry.