In W33 in the mandarin landscape, the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) has projected that the global mandarin/tangerine production is expected to decline to 36.9 million metric tons (mmt) in the 2022/23 season due to weather conditions and production declines in China and Morocco. Despite this, China is still expected to be the largest producer, with a forecast of 26.5 mmt, a 2% year-on-year (YoY) decline. China's domestic consumption is anticipated to decrease as exports rise, with Indonesia and Vietnam being its primary export markets. However, Greece's increased mandarin production might not fully compensate for Spain's reduction due to high summer temperatures. Within the European Union (EU), mandarin production is predicted to decrease by 4% to 3 mmt in the 2022/23 season, with Morocco and South Africa being the main suppliers. Turkey's mandarin production is expected to increase slightly, reaching 1.9 mmt in the 2022/23 season, while exports are anticipated to remain steady.
Furthermore, the report forecasts a 32% decrease in Morocco's mandarin production in the 2022/23 season due to high temperatures and water shortages, impacting domestic consumption and exports. The primary export markets for Morocco are the EU, Russia, and the United States (US). On the other hand, California's mandarin production is projected to rise by 23% to 819 thousand mt in the 2022/23 season, leading to an increase in exports. In contrast, Peru's mandarin production is anticipated to drop by 20 thousand mt to 550 thousand mt in the 2022/23 season, resulting in flat exports due to a delayed season and smaller harvests. Chile's mandarin/tangerine production is forecasted to increase by 27% to 215 thousand mt in the 2022/23 season, with a 25% rise in exports to 180 thousand mt.
South Africa is expected to reach a 12-year high production of 680 thousand mt in the 2022/23 season due to favorable rainfall and new plantings. South African tangerine/mandarin cultivation area has grown rapidly in the past seven years due to global demand and higher profit margins. However, the industry faces softening demand in the EU and United Kingdom (UK) markets, inflationary pressures, and economic growth weakening. Additionally, South Africa's tangerines/mandarin exports are expected to increase by 7.5% in 2022/23, reaching a record level of 560 thousand mt. The EU and UK are the largest foreign markets for South African tangerines/mandarins, accounting for 45% of its total exports. Meanwhile, the imports remain flat at 3 thousand mt, driven by consumer preference for easy peeling varieties.