In W34 in the barley landscape, global barley production estimates continue to shrink due to adverse weather conditions in regions like Canada and Northern Europe. This reduction is expected to impact barley’s quality and widen the price gap between forage and malting categories. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised the global barley production downwards to 142.6 million metric tons (mmt) for the 2023/24 season. This is due to droughts, heat waves, and delayed harvests affecting European yields and quality, leading to an uneven barley crop.
Ukraine anticipates a barley crop of 5.6 mmt, leaving a 2 mmt exportable surplus contingent on transport amidst conflict. Russia's production estimate is also expected to drop to 19 mmt. Additionally, Canada's barley output is expected to decrease by 8% year-on-year (YoY) due to drought-related setbacks. Australia's production forecast improved due to favorable weather conditions. China's tariff restriction lift on Australian barley boosted domestic prices and spurred reservations for shipments.
The European Commission (EC) reports that the 2023 winter crop harvest is nearing completion, with yields expected to remain unchanged in Bulgaria. Notably, the Bulgarian barley yield is expected to remain unchanged at 55.2 thousand kilograms (kg) per hectare (ha), an unusually high volume for Bulgaria. The EC expects a significant reduction in the spring crop average yield due to the hot and dry weather during Jul-23 and Aug-23 in Bulgaria.
Lastly, the Ukrainian State Customs Service reports that grain and leguminous crop exports from Ukraine for the 2023/24 season reached 3.83 mmt as of August 23. This reflects a 15% increase compared to the same period in the 2022/23 season. Notably, Ukrainian barley exports totaled 440 thousand metric tons (mt), a significant 62% increase over the 2022/23 volume.