W37: Canola & Rapeseed Update
In W37 in the canola landscape, November futures on the Paris Stock Exchange initially dropped by USD 4.80 per metric ton (mt) to USD 473.84/mt on September 11. However, rapeseed futures began to rise from September 12, influenced by the growing volumes of oil imports, reaching USD 457.92/mt, and this upward trend continued until September 14, when they increased by USD 15.99/mt to reach USD 475.71/mt.
As of September 3, the European Union (EU) imported 519.8 thousand mt of rapeseed in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY), significantly lower than the 1.03 million metric tons (mmt) imported in 2022/23 MY. Notably, there has been an increase in weekly volumes of oilseed imports. Between August 28 and September 3, EU countries imported 134 thousand mt of rapeseed, compared to 55 thousand mt the previous week. Ukraine contributed 243.5 thousand mt to EU imports, marking a 45% year-on-year (YoY) decrease, while Moldova shipped 125.1 thousand mt, reflecting a 270% YoY increase. Meanwhile, Australia saw a 79% YoY decrease in exports to the EU, with 103 thousand mt shipped.
Poland is adamant about extending the ban on grain imports from Ukraine beyond September 15 and is willing to do so unilaterally, even if the European Commission lifts the current restrictions. President Zelensky of Ukraine had previously warned that if grain exports to EU countries remain restricted after September 15, Ukraine may consider initiating arbitration on this matter. Similarly, Hungary's Minister of Agriculture, with his Romanian and Slovak counterparts, agreed to extend the ban on Ukrainian agricultural product imports if the European Commission does not act. However, Bulgaria has taken a different stance by adopting a draft decision to cancel preventive measures on agricultural imports from Ukraine after September 15, 2023.
The purchase prices for Ukrainian oil crops are experiencing a decline due to ongoing harvesting activities and issues, including the blockade of Black Sea ports. Additionally, the ban on rapeseed imports imposed by five neighboring EU countries further impacts these prices. The EU is currently dealing with an oversupply of rapeseed and soybeans, leading to a drop in purchase prices. In W37, rapeseed demand prices decreased by USD 10/mt, ranging from USD 378.43/mt to USD 394.42/mt for supplies to DAP Danube ports, USD 426.40/mt to USD 437.06/mt for DAP East Germany (auto), and USD 415.74/mt to USD 421.07/mt for DAP Baltic countries.
As of the beginning of September, Ukraine has harvested 33.7 mmt of agricultural crops from 6.697 million hectares (ha). This includes 4.0 mmt of rapeseed from 1.36 million ha, covering 98% of the planted area, with a yield of 2.87 mt/ha. This represents an increase from the previous year, when 3.1 mmt of rapeseed were harvested from 1.096 million ha, with a slightly lower yield of 2.85 mt/ha. The largest rapeseed harvests in Ukraine were recorded in Odesa (436.9 thousand mt), Vinnytsia (419.1 thousand mt), Ternopil (364.5 thousand mt), Dnipropetrovs'ka (323.6 thousand mt), and Khmelnytskyi (322 thousand mt).
In Canada, farmers are expected to harvest slightly more wheat but less canola than initially anticipated due to drought conditions. The 2023 canola harvest is estimated at 17.4 mmt, down from the earlier forecast of 17.6 mmt and 7% lower than the 2022 harvest. Canada's 2023 oilseed harvest could also be the lowest in the last nine years.