In W39 in the barley landscape, experts indicate that weather instability in France and Poland poses a significant threat to barley yields. Experts anticipate that rising temperatures will lead to diminished barley yields. Projections indicate that the spring barley harvest in France could decline by 18% by 2050, with Poland also facing a potential 15% reduction. Experts highlighted that the recent years' unpredictable weather patterns have already impacted barley yields, resulting in record-high prices for malt and malting barley across Europe in 2022.
Russia’s barley export prices continued declining and approached the estimated parity level in W39. Simultaneously, Russian barley export duties increased by nearly USD 5.04 per metric ton (mt) within the week. The barley export pace fell by about 1.5 to 2 times in Sep-23 after record shipments in Jul-23 and Aug-23. Experts expect further barley export slowdown in Oct-23. The domestic barley market was characterized by high supply levels, exerting downward pressure on selling prices. Barley demand from livestock farmers also dwindled after active purchasing over the past one to two months. Consequently, experts anticipate barley prices to remain near current levels, with stagnation most likely over the next two to four weeks.
Lastly, Russia's total grain harvest amounted to 125.3 million metric tons (mmt) as of September 29, a decline from the 141.1 mmt recorded during the same period in 2022. This harvest encompassed a cultivation area of 39.7 million hectares (ha), yielding an average of 3.16 centners (c) per ha, down from the 42.4 million ha and the yield of 3.33 mt/ha observed in 2022. The barley harvest reached 20.9 mmt from an area of 7.3 million ha, resulting in a yield of 2.87 mt/ha. This represents a slight reduction compared to the 23.9 mmt harvested from 7.8 million ha, yielding 3.07 mt/ha in 2022.