In W40 in the soybean landscape, Brazil has planted 4% of its intended soybean area for the 2023/24 season as of October 1, marking a 2% weekly increase. However, this progress lags behind the 5% planted at the same time the previous year. Challenging weather conditions and dry soil contributed to a slower sowing pace in states like Parana and Mato Grosso.
In the 2023/24 season, Brazil's soybean sowing area is set to reach a record 45.62 million hectares (ha), a 2.5% year-on-year (YoY) increase despite the El Niño phenomenon with an initial harvest forecast of 163.25 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 4.5% compared to the harvest previous. El Niño is expected to impact the climate by altering rainfall patterns and raising temperatures, and its influence is likely to persist until Oct-24, leading to climate instability. Previously, Brazil experienced La Niña, which brought more summer conditions to the southern region and increased rainfall for the north and northeast regions of the country.
According to the National Cereal Exporters Association (ANEC), Brazilian ports shipped approximately 1.93 mmt of soybeans during the week of September 24 to 30, contributing to a total oilseed export volume of 6.23 mmt for the entire month of Sept-23. This figure is a 53% decrease month-on-month (MoM) but nearly double the amount exported in Sept-22, which was 3.59 mmt. Moreover, experts anticipate that Brazil's soybean exports will reach 6.7 mmt in Oct-23, significantly higher than the 3.6 mmt exported in Oct-22.
As of October 1, the United States (US) soybean crops were harvested on 23% of the planted area, which is slightly ahead of the 20% sown in the previous year and on par with the 22% average over the past five years. In the week ending September 28, US exporters reported substantial soybean sales for the 2023/24 harvest, totaling 808.5 thousand metric tons (mt). The main buyers included China (589.2 thousand mt), Spain (73.3 thousand mt), Bangladesh (56.2 thousand mt), Colombia (17.2 thousand mt), and Indonesia (14.4 thousand mt), offsetting cancellations made by undisclosed destinations (10 thousand mt).
Argentina's giant soybean processing plants are running out of oilseed after a historic drought cut the harvest in the 2022/23 season to around 20 mmt, leaving over two-thirds of the factories' capacity idle. The next soybean harvest is expected in Apr-24, with approximately 3 mmt of soybeans left to meet demand until then. Furthermore, Argentina had to import a significant amount of soybeans from neighboring countries such as Paraguay, Bolivia, and Brazil to cope with the shortage. Estimates suggest that Argentina could import a total of 10 mmt of soybeans in 2023, with government data already showing a record 8.2 mmt of soybean imports through Aug-23, surpassing the 6.4 mmt imported in the entire year of 2018.
Lastly, the soybean harvest in Russia for the 2023/24 season is expected to reach 6.2 mmt, representing an increase of 200 thousand mt from the previous season, which also saw a 26% increase of 1.2 mmt from 2021/22. Analysts attribute this expected growth to an expansion in the cultivated area. Furthermore, soybean exports in 2023 have risen by over 46% YoY to 1.3 mmt, while imports decreased by 19.8% YoY but remained higher at 1.5 mmt. Domestic consumption also increased by 28.9% YoY to 6.7 mmt, with carryovers totaling 620 thousand mt.