In W40 in the sugar landscape, on Monday, October 2, sugar futures on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) experienced a decrease of 0.49% to USD 0.2635 per pound (lb), influenced by falling oil prices of around 2% and the progress of the harvest in Brazil. On October 3, sugar futures experienced a more substantial decline of 2.58% to USD 0.2567 due to exchange rate factors and updates on the 2023/24 harvest in the Center-South of Brazil. However, on October 4, sugar futures rebounded with a 1.01% increase to USD 0.2593 due to the projected sugar deficit of 3.2 million metric tons (mmt) for the 2023/24 season, driven by challenges in India, Thailand, and various Latin American countries. By October 5, sugar futures rose by 0.89% to USD 0.2616 as supply concerns persisted, though they remained below recent 12-year highs. Additionally, on the financial side, oil prices dropped significantly on foreign exchanges, while the dollar strengthened against the Brazilian real.
In Brazil, during the first half of Sept-23, sugar production in the center-south region reached 3.12 mmt, representing an 8.54% increase from the 2.87 mmt produced in Sept-22. Meanwhile, Brazil exported 3.21 mmt of sugar and molasses in Sept-23, generating revenue exceeding USD 1.60 billion. In comparison, in Sept-22, sugar and molasses exports amounted to 3.02 mmt, with total revenue reaching USD 1.24 billion. Brazil's south central region achieved a record sugar output of 40.8 mmt for the 2023/24 season, contributing to maintaining the global trade balance. Brazil is anticipating another substantial sugarcane crop for the 2024/25 season, with an estimated 629 mmt of sugarcane harvest between Apr-24 and Mar-25. This is projected to yield approximately 41.1 mmt of sugar. However, the success of this crop will be contingent on the rainfall received in Brazil from Nov-24 to Mar-25.
In the upcoming 2023/24 season, Germany is anticipated to produce approximately 4.36 mmt of white sugar, reflecting a substantial increase of about 12.9% compared to the previous crop year. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has predicted a 3% rise in European Union (EU) sugar production to 15.4 mmt in the same season. On the other hand, India's projected white sugar production for the 2023/24 crop year is 33.6 mmt, which may fall short of meeting consumption demands. Additionally, Thailand's sugar output forecast for the 2023/24 crop year has been lowered by 15%.
Russia's Tambov region has reported a substantial increase in the average sugar beet yield, exceeding 48 mt per hectare (ha), significantly higher than the previous year's figures at 38 mt/ha. This improvement is attributed to modern production technologies and efficient fertilizer use. Kirsanovsky, Mordovian, and Rzhaksinsky municipal districts lead the sugar beet harvest. The region aims to harvest at least 4.8 mmt of sugar beets in 2023, benefiting from favorable weather conditions during the harvesting season.