In W40 in the wheat landscape, soft wheat exports from the European Union (EU) in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) reached 7.39 million metric tons (mmt), marking a 24% decrease compared to the previous season's figure of 9.77 mmt. The primary European grain exporter this season is Romania, which shipped 2.03 mmt of wheat. Following Romania are Poland (1.45 mmt), France (1.29 mmt), Bulgaria (937 thousand metric tons), and Germany (677 thousand metric tons).
Pakistan is projected to achieve a record wheat harvest of 28 mmt in 2023/24 MY, with consumption also expected to reach an all-time high of 29.5 mmt. Due to its rapidly growing population, Pakistan has been emphasizing cereal production to address food security challenges. Moreover, wheat ending stocks in 2023/24 are expected to decrease to 3.03 mmt, marking the lowest level since 2019/20.
In Russia, the 2023 wheat harvest is expected to reach 89.66 mmt, 14% less year-on-year (YoY) but 8% more than the five-year average. Excessively wet weather in Jul-23 hampered harvesting and reduced the quality of winter wheat in western regions. In the Rostov region of Russia, approximately 7.5 mmt of the new wheat crop, representing 55% of the total harvest, has been assessed. Of the surveyed volume, 78% consists of food-grade wheat (grades 1-4), according to the regional Ministry of Agriculture. Meanwhile, in the Altai region, the gross harvest of soft wheat by the end of Sept-23 reached 2 mmt.
As of September 1, wheat reserves in Russian agricultural organizations (excluding small ones) stood at 28.8 mmt, a 9% YoY decrease. Experts attribute the reduction in inventories to record-high exports in the new season and estimate 2023/24 exports at 48.9 mmt, a 2 mmt increase from 2022. Additionally, Russia is withholding approximately 1 mmt of wheat from the world market in Oct-23 due to low prices. In Sept-23, Russia exported 6 mmt, marking a 16.9% YoY increase. During the season from Jul-22 to Sept-23, shipments increased by 42% to 17 mmt. Egypt was the largest buyer, with 782 thousand metric tons (mt) shipped, despite a 31% YoY decrease. Shipments to Turkey rebounded in Sept-23, exceeding the previous year's levels by 4%, totaling 616 thousand mt. Wheat exports for Oct-23, considering the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries, are expected to be around 4.5 mmt, a decrease from 4.9 mmt in Sept-22.
In 2023, Ukraine is expected to achieve a grain and oil crop harvest of over 79 mmt. Although the total area of sown crops was slightly smaller than the previous year at 10.86 million hectares (ha), favorable weather conditions have led to nearly record-breaking crop yields, reaching up to 5.21 mt/ha. Preliminary estimates from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy suggest that the wheat harvest for 2023 will reach 21.7 mmt. Up to October 2, Ukraine has exported 6.68 mmt of cereals and oilseeds, a decrease of 2.32 mmt compared to the previous year. However, Ukrainian wheat exports have increased by 211 thousand metric mt YoY, reaching 3.34 mmt.