In W41 in the cashew landscape, Indian cashew prices have remained stable over the past year, from USD 6.75 to USD 8.00 per kilogram, primarily due to global oversupply and weak demand. However, as the balance between global supply and demand begins to readjust, it is forecasted that prices will rise toward the end of 2023 and into early 2024. India's consistent demand for lower-priced cashews for use in traditional dishes and Vietnam's expanding exports driven by the snack market are expected to support this gradual price increase. The cashew industry, which has grappled with oversupply and subdued consumer demand, shows signs of recovery as inventories are gradually decreasing. This shift will likely influence wholesale prices in India and Vietnam, resulting in a steady price increase over the coming months.
The Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas) has reported positive trends in the cashew market, with exports forecasted to increase in the final months of 2023. While the United States (US) and China have boosted imports recently, the cashew industry faces challenges related to quality, food safety, and hygiene. The chairman of Vinacas noted that after a challenging first half of 2023 due to various economic factors, the cashew market has shown improvement. Exports reached 456 thousand tons worth USD 2.6 billion by the end of Sep-23, marking a 19.6% increase in volume and a 14.3% increase in value compared to the same period in 2022.
However, concerns about contaminated shipments and disinfectant residues exceeding allowable levels have also emerged. Vinacas has received warnings from European and US associations and other customers regarding the declining quality of Vietnamese cashew nuts, which could impact the reputation of the entire Vietnamese cashew industry and contribute to lower export prices compared to Indian cashews. To address these issues, businesses must maintain stricter quality control, especially in the rainy season, to prevent contamination, ensure proper disinfectant use, and uphold food safety and hygiene standards.
Mozambique's Almond Promotion and Production Department predicts an increase in cashew nut production for the 2023/24 agricultural season, with expected yields of 160 thousand tons, up from the previous season with 157 thousand tons. Despite the forecast of torrential rains, the Southern region anticipates a strong harvest and good market prospects. Preparatory activities, including tree spraying, producer training, and chemical treatment services, have been handled to ensure production growth. Cashew nut exports play a significant role in the country's agricultural product exports, contributing USD 51.7 million to the total of USD 562.3 million in 2022. Major buyers of Mozambican cashew nuts include Vietnam, India, the US, the Netherlands, and China.