In W41 in the orange landscape, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s first citrus crop forecast for the 2023/24 season predicts that Florida will produce 20.5 million boxes of oranges, a 30% year-over-year (YoY) increase. Non-Valencia oranges in Florida are expected to reach 7.5 million boxes, a 22% YoY rise. However, the number of fruit trees (excluding Navels) stands at 13.3 million, a 9% YoY decline. The average number of fruits per tree has dropped significantly, with 342 pieces, representing a decrease of 144 compared to the previous year and the lowest figure in decades. The fruit size is smaller than the minimum requirement, with an estimated 337 pieces needed to fill a 90-pound box, resulting in a 40% fruit loss.
On the other hand, Valencia oranges from Florida are anticipated to yield 13 million boxes, a substantial 35% YoY increase. The number of fruit trees is 24.9 million, a 5% YoY decline. However, the average number of fruits per tree has also decreased to 279, with a drop of 47 pieces from the previous year and the lowest recorded since the 1964 to 1965 season. Similar to non-Valencia oranges, the expected fruit size is below the minimum standard, with approximately 274 pieces needed to fill a 90-pound (lb) box. Furthermore, the projected orange crop loss is higher than average at 40%.
In Brazil, the greening disease has rapidly spread in São Paulo, the world's primary orange production region. It now affects almost 40% of citrus plants, posing a substantial risk to global orange supplies. In 2022, it affected 24.42% of plants; in 2023, the figure rose to 38.06%. Out of 202.88 million orange trees in the citrus park, a staggering 77.22 million trees are infected. This marks the sixth consecutive year of greening's increasing prevalence, with this year seeing the highest percentage rise in the historical series dating back to 2008. The disease's rapid spread is attributed to the resistance of the psyllid insect Diaphorina citri, which transmits greening bacteria to some commonly used insecticides.
In W40, Category 1 South African oranges at the Mercamadrid wholesale market in Spain saw a significant price increase, reaching approximately USD 2.12 per kilogram (EUR 2/kg). This surge is attributed to decreasing volumes as the South African orange season concludes and the Spanish orange season has yet to begin. Typical prices during the season usually range from USD 0.85 to 1.06/kg (EUR 0.8 to EUR 1/kg).
Zimbabwe has initiated its citrus export from the Beitbridge region to China, with the arrival of 12 containers of oranges and 34 more in transit. Each container holds an average of 24 tons of oranges, with 46 containers already issued phytosanitary certificates for export. Zimbabwe also exports oranges and lemons to the Middle East and grapefruits and lemons to Europe. Zimbabwe hopes to use the Port of Beira for exports but needs the necessary cold treatment facilities. The General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) approved Zimbabwean citrus exports in 2022, allowing a yearly export quota of 50 thousand tons. Zimbabwe is strategically increasing its citrus production and cultivation efforts to align with the growing demand within the Chinese market. The Horticulture Development Council of Zimbabwe anticipates an 87% YoY increase in lemon exports in 2023, from 2.3 thousand tons to 4.4 thousand tons. The scale of citrus planting in Zimbabwe is expected to grow from 8 thousand to 10 thousand hectares (ha) by 2030, with long-term expectations reaching 20 thousand ha. However, the present citrus production levels remain considerably below these capacity figures, with approximately 3.2 thousand ha currently in operation.