W41: Shrimp Update

In W41 in the shrimp landscape, the Global Shrimp Aquaculture Production Survey and Forecast showed a slight decline of 0.4% in the global farmed shrimp production for 2023, reaching approximately 5.6 million metric tons (mmt). However, it is expected to rebound in 2024, with a growth of about 4.8% year-over-year (YoY), reaching nearly 5.88 mmt. In 2023, the top five shrimp producers, Ecuador, China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia, will contribute to 74% of global production. Other Asian countries, including Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, and Myanmar, are estimated to contribute around 840 thousand metric tons (mt). Latin American countries like Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela will contribute approximately 500 thousand mt in 2023. The Pacific white shrimp remains the dominant species, while black tiger shrimp production is increasing, contributing an estimated 550 thousand mt in 2023 and projected to reach 600 thousand mt in 2024.

Vietnam's shrimp exports experienced a 15% YoY decline in Aug-23, totaling USD 337 million. The accumulated shrimp exports for the first eight months of 2023 reached USD 2.2 billion, a 28% YoY decrease. The export trend in Aug-23 resembled that of Jul-23, with positive growth seen in the United States (US) and China markets, while exports to markets such as the European Union (EU), Japan, and Korea recorded a 32% to 41% YoY decline. Vietnamese whiteleg shrimp exports held a 74% market share and amounted to USD 1.6 billion, a decrease of 29% YoY. Black tiger shrimp held a 14% market share and exports reached USD 315 million, down 25% YoY. Other shrimp held only a 12% market share, and achieved USD 257 million in exports, a decrease of 25% YoY.

Vietnamese shrimp exports to the US continued to rise by 11% in Aug-23, totaling USD 76 million, although cumulative exports for the first eight months were down by 27% YoY. The overall US shrimp imports increased by 3% YoY in Aug-23, reaching 73.4 thousand mt. India, the largest shrimp supplier to the US, holds a 38% market share and recorded a 13% YoY increase in exports to the US in Jul-23. In comparison, Ecuador holds a 27% market share in the US market, and experienced a 6% YoY drop in volume and a 13% YoY decline in value. The rise in consumer confidence and the upcoming holiday season in the US are expected to increase consumption, potentially leading to higher shrimp import demand.

On the other hand, Vietnamese shrimp exports to China and Hong Kong reached USD 56 million in Aug-23, marking a 32% YoY increase. In the first eight months of 2023, cumulative exports reached USD 393 million, a decrease of 5% YoY. Overall, the outlook for Vietnamese shrimp exports appears promising for the coming months, with positive signals from both the US and Chinese markets.

Lastly, Indian shrimp production is expected to decrease by up to 20% YoY due to low prices in the past year. Many Indian producers have left their farms idle or switched to alternative species, such as freshwater shrimp and fish, as high inventories and low prices in major markets made shrimp farming less viable. This decline in production is anticipated to continue for the rest of 2023.