In W42 in the rice landscape, the global rice trade is expected to decrease by 6.1% year-on-year (YoY) in 2023, falling from a record 55.9 million metric tons (mmt) in 2022 to an estimated 52.5 mmt. This reduction is influenced by increased production in regions that have historically faced deficits, particularly in Africa. The situation was exacerbated by India's decision to ban exports of non-basmati white rice, which accounted for 25% of Indian shipments and 11% of the global trade. India's export restrictions led to increased global rice prices and prompted many importing countries to defer or reduce their orders. However, a portion of Indian rice export decline is expected to be offset by exports from Thailand and Vietnam, both of which have maintained favorable exportable supplies. Initial projections estimate the global rice trade at 53 mmt in 2024, a modest 1% YoY recovery.
Global rice stocks are expected to amount to 195.3 mmt in 2023, a 1% YoY drop but still 3% above the five-year average. These stocks are projected to account for 38% of global consumption needs. It is expected that Chinese rice stockpiles will decrease once more in 2023. However, a potential 3% rise in Indian reserves, attributed to export constraints, might help compensate for this decline. However, Chinese reserves remain substantial, representing 70% of domestic consumption and 50% of global stocks. Rice stocks in major exporting countries are projected to reach 57.5 mmt in 2023, equivalent to 30% of global stocks. Furthermore, initial forecasts estimate global rice stocks at 198.6 mmt in 2024, a recovery of 1.7% YoY.
Parboiled rice export prices from India dropped for the third consecutive week in W42, primarily due to reduced demand resulting from the extension of export tariffs until Mar-24. The 20% export duty on parboiled rice was initially set to expire on October 15. The prices for the 5% broken grain parboiled rice variety ranged from USD 510 to 520 per metric ton (mt) in W42, down from USD 515 to 525/mt in W41. While some buyers have resumed purchases following the government's clarification, demand remains below normal levels.
Additionally, India has decided to retain the minimum price for basmati rice at USD 1,200/mt until further notice despite exporters seeking a lower rate of USD 850/mt. Nevertheless, the Indian government is permitting the export of non-basmati white rice to several countries with specific licenses, including Nepal, Cameroon, Malaysia, the Philippines, Seychelles, Ivory Coast, and the Republic of Guinea. Rice prices have experienced a slight increase due to steady supply following the summer-autumn harvest and rising global demand, compounded by the Middle East tensions.
The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) reports that Vietnamese rice export prices increased to USD 643/mt for 5% broken rice and USD 628/mt for 25% broken type in W42. In contrast, Thai rice prices slightly decreased, with 5% broken rice priced at USD 570/mt, USD 73/mt lower than Vietnamese rice. Thai 25% broken rice export prices stood at USD 524/mt, a significant USD 104/mt less than Vietnamese rice of the same quality. This price variation is attributed to Thailand's peak harvest season and increased stockpiles, whereas Vietnam faces limited supply. Furthermore, the depreciation of the Thai baht (TBH) against the United States dollar (USD) has rendered Thai rice more competitively priced. These price dynamics unfolded following the Philippines' removal of retail price ceilings on rice, Indonesia's intentions to import up to 1.5 mmt of rice in 2023, and India's ongoing rice export restrictions.
Lastly, according to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s rice exports reached 307.83 thousand mt in the first 15 days of Oct-23, bringing year-to-date (YTD) shipments to 6.7 mmt. This impressive momentum suggests that Vietnam’s rice exports might reach over 8 mmt by the end of 2023. Vietnam’s rice shipments in the first nine months of 2023 were primarily destined for the Philippines with 2.44 mmt, worth USD 1.29 billion, to Indonesia with 884.18 thousand mt, worthUSD 462.6 million, and to China with 858.85 thousand mt, worthUSD 495.78 million. White rice remained the most exported variety in the Jan-23 to Sep-23 period, accounting for 60% of total shipments at over 3.8 mmt. Fragrant rice followed with approximately 1.6 mmt shipments, constituting 25.4% of total exports. Notably, due to a soaring market demand, Vietnam's rice export prices increased by 13.7% YoY in the first nine months of 2023, averaging at USD 551/mt.