In W44 in the sunflower oil landscape, the European Commission (EC) revised the production forecast for oilseeds in European Union (EU) countries for the 2023/24 season (including rapeseed, sunflower seeds, and soybeans) to 32.42 million metric tons (mmt). This is a decrease from the 32.92 mmt forecasted in Sept-23 but still higher than the previous year's production of 31.31 mmt. EU sunflower seed production was lowered to 9.95 mmt, down from Sept-23's forecast of 10.45 mmt. Additionally, imports of oilseeds are now estimated at 1.08 mmt, down from the previous month's forecast of 1.48 mmt.
In Ukraine, the grain and leguminous crop harvest has progressed to cover 81% of the forecasted area, amounting to 8.85 million hectares (ha). For sunflowers, harvesting has been conducted on 93% of the forecasted area, covering 4.69 million ha. The yield for sunflowers is reported at 23.6 metric tons (mt)/ha, resulting in a total harvest of 11.074 mmt.
Sunflower prices are on the rise in Russia due to favorable seed moisture conditions and a strategy by farmers to limit sales to processors. In the previous season (from September 1, 2022, to August 31, 2023), Russia exported a record 3.85 mmt of sunflower oil to foreign markets, marking a 26% increase compared to the 2021/22 season. This season, the export potential is estimated to exceed 4 mmt. As of mid-October, the average sunflower price in the South is around USD 256.24/mt excluding value-added tax (VAT); in the Center, the price stands at USD 238.87/mt; and in the Volga regions, it is USD 207.38/mt.
Furthermore, the harvesting of sunflowers in Bashkortostan is nearing completion, with 86% of the total volume harvested by October 30. The gross threshing of oilseeds has exceeded 370 thousand mt, which is significantly higher than the previous year's figures at the same time. Meanwhile, in the Volgograd region, the harvest of grain crops and sunflowers has been halted in W44 due to cold rains and snow, which could potentially lead to a decrease in production and a significant increase in the prices of bread and sunflower oil in the region. Farmers are expressing their concerns in highlighting the issue of harvesting difficulties worsened by the sharp increase in the price of diesel fuel. Some areas have already announced a suspension of the harvesting campaign.
The gross sunflower harvest in Turkey for the 2023/24 season is forecast to reach around 2.2 mmt, 400 thousand mt lower than the previous forecast. The current production of sunflowers in the country is also 14% lower than the previous agricultural year.
Lastly, India's edible oil imports decreased to their lowest level in 16 months in Oct-23, with rising inventories prompting refiners to reduce purchases of palm, soybean, and sunflower oils. Sunflower oil imports, in particular, dropped by 47% to 158 thousand mt, marking the lowest level in seven months. In contrast, in the 2022/23 marketing year (MY), which concluded on October 31, India's edible oil imports surged 17% year-on-year (YoY) to a record 16.5 mmt. This increase was driven by higher purchases during the November to January and July to September periods. Sunflower oil imports, in particular, rose by 55% YoY to a record 3 mmt as it had been selling at a discount to soybean oil for several months, as reported by dealers.