W45: Coffee Update

In W45 in the coffee landscape, Vietnam’s domestic price of green coffee fell by 15% to USD 2.38/kg (VND 58,000/kg), compared to the peak in Sep-23. On Saturday, November 11, coffee prices dropped USD 0.057-0.082/kg (VND1,400-2,000 /kg) due to the start of the harvest. Despite the price drop, the current level is still considered high. According to local buyers, this year’s early-season procurement is 20% lower than in 2022. Farmers are holding goods to wait for prices to increase. The demand in the world market is slowing down due to concerns about the United States Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates after Chairman Jerome Powell's speech pushed the market into a negative position. In addition, the global coffee production forecast is positive for this season, causing domestic prices to adjust.

On Saturday, November 11, robusta coffee futures on the London Stock for the Jan-24 contract decreased by USD 9 per metric ton (mt) to USD 2421/mt and the prices for the Mar-24 contract decreased by USD 11/mt to USD 2375/mt. On the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica coffee futures for the Dec-23 contract fell 4.3 cents/lb to 174.5 cents/lb.

During W45, the National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) in Colombia reported that coffee production in Oct-23 reached 1.2 million bags, a 30.29% YoY increase. For the 2023/24 coffee season, FNC aims to export 12 million bags of coffee, a higher target than the USDA's previous forecast. Moreover, in Brazil, favorable weather pushes Arabica prices down more sharply than Robusta.

Furthermore, the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority (ECTA) has launched a coffee training program to fill the knowledge gap and nurture specialized skills. It is worth noting that the Ethiopian government has implemented advanced software and network systems that track coffee from its source to its destination, enabling strict control and preventing any illegal practices. The nation's investment in training, technology, and conservation efforts positions it to become a leading force in the global coffee industry.

Lastly, in October, Colombia's coffee exports reached 906,000 60-kg bags, representing a decrease of 4% YoY. The accumulated coffee export for the first ten months of 2023 reached 8.406 million 60-kg bags, a 12% YoY decrease. On the other hand, the country's coffee production increased by 30% YoY in Oct-23 to 1.157 million 60-kg bags. The accumulated coffee production from Jan-23 to Oct-23 was 8.846 million 60-kg bags, a YoY decrease of 2%.

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