W46 Lemon and Lime Update: Production Forecasts and Lower Lemon Prices in Peru, Brazil, and Uzbekistan

Trends in South American Lemon Exports and Regional Price Dynamics Update

In W46 in the lemon and lime landscape, Peru's lemon exports were forecasted to decline sharply on Oct-23, but lemon juice only showed a slight 0.2% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. Of the 2.2 thousand-ton shipments, 85% constituted lemon juice, amounting to nearly 1.9 thousand tons exported. Fresh lemon shipments comprised only 9% of the total export volume, experiencing an 84% YoY decrease.

The Pernambuco, Brazilian market experienced a 29% drop in wholesale prices for Tahiti limes in W45, from USD 0.89 per kilogram (kg) to USD 0.63/kg. This was due to increased rainfall in the São Paulo region, accelerating lime harvests, and a surge in September due to low supply. The price reduction is expected to impact producer profitability positively.

Lemon Price Dynamics and Export Opportunities in Central Asia's Growing Markets

Starting from W44, prices for locally produced lemons in Uzbekistan have significantly dropped due to the increasing local lemons supply in the local market, particularly as the harvest from the country's greenhouse farms becomes more active. On average, lemon retail prices in the capital markets have decreased by 1.5 times. As of November 17, 2023, the average retail price for Uzbek lemons in the capital markets was approximately USD 2.04/kg.

Lemon growers in Tajikistan's Vakhsh Valley reported a successful harvest and increased prices, surging from USD 0.32 to 0.37/kg to USD 1.38 to 1.47/kg. The region's lemon production, primarily in the Jaykhun district, attracted interest from entrepreneurs in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, leading to increased exports. While some farmers face challenges in directly exporting, entrepreneurs buy and export lemons, emphasizing the potential for higher income if farmers improve packaging. Approximately 80% of Tajikistan's lemons are cultivated in the Vakhsh Valley, covering 150 hectares (ha).

Spain's Lemon Production Forecasts for the 2023/24 Campaign

Lemon production in Spain is expected to recover after a low harvest in the 2022/23 campaign. AILIMPO (Asociación Interprofesional de Limón y Pomelo)’s lemon harvest estimate for the 2023/2024 campaign foresees a production in Spain of 1.36 million tons, with a potential volume of 1.75 million tons in the 2025/26 campaign. However, the president of Ailimpo warns that climatic conditions and water availability can affect production. The president emphasizes that there will be lemons if there are lemon trees. The global increase in lemon production is due to increased consumption and profitability, with countries like Turkey and South Africa experiencing significant surface growth in recent years.