W48 Apple Update: Weather Challenges, Export Endeavors, and Price Shifts for the Global Fresh Apple Market in 2023-2024

Notable Recovery in South African Production Estimate Following Hail Damage

In South Africa, the Deciduous Fruit Annual Report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates a notable recovery from the 2022/23 hail disaster. Apple production is projected to increase by 7%, reaching 123 thousand metric tons (mt) for the 2023/24 season. Apple exports are on an upward trajectory, reaching 650 thousand mt. Despite challenges, South African exports to China experienced remarkable growth. The limited new planting area for apples is expected to remain at 25,500 hectares (ha), emphasizing the strategic focus on higher yields.

Reduced Apple Harvest in Turkey Due to a Delayed Spring

The late arrival of spring in Turkey for the 2023/24 season is estimated to result in a reduced apple harvest. For the 2023/24 season, the USDA forecasts total apple production at 4.85 million metric tons (mmt), which is less than last season due to drought during the blooming season and late rainfall in the maturation period. Turkey’s apple production has steadily climbed higher for the last six years as farmers have planted higher-yielding apple trees and adopted modern growing techniques. However, climate change is delaying the seasons and causing trees to not get enough rain when needed and to get too much rain when not needed. As a result, lower yields and smaller apples are expected in 2023/24. Despite these production challenges, commercial growers continue to tap growth opportunities in domestic and export markets. Apple exports for 2023/24 are forecast at 380 thousand mt due to a slight decrease in production and the size of apples produced this year which are not suitable for the export market. This export forecast assumes steady demand from neighboring countries. India remains the top destination for Turkish apples.

Poland Forecasted to Export Apples to Indonesia in 2024

Poland is making efforts to expand its apple exports to Indonesia, with the first shipment expected to take place in 2024. The Polish Investment and Trade Agency in Jakarta revealed ongoing negotiations with the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture regarding apple exports. The goal is to have Polish apples on Indonesian shelves, particularly during the Ramadan season starting on Mar-24. Poland aims to export between 10 and 20 containers in 2024, with plans to increase the volume in the following years. However, there are potential initial challenges in packaging and transportation details as both sides get acquainted with the process.

A 2.4% Decline in Apple Production Expected in the EU for the 2023/24 Season

The European Union (EU) faces a 2.4% decline in apple production (12 million tons) for the 2023/24 season due to unfavorable weather. Poland, the largest apple producer, expects a supply drop. Lower apple availability may lead to a 3.6% decrease in per capita consumption.

Tridge Outlook: Fluctuating Apple Prices Globally in Dec-23

In November, fresh apple prices in China and the United States (US) exhibited mixed changes. The US, dealing with an increased supply, faced downward price pressure, leading the USDA to make a preventive purchase of USD 100 million. Conversely, China experienced a reduction in Fuji apple volumes, particularly high-quality apples, due to adverse weather and decreased acreage from previous seasons. In contrast, India and Italy maintained stable price trends. Despite concerns about demand in Europe, India appeared as a lucrative market for apple traders. The December outlook anticipates higher prices for the US and China, while India and Italy are expected to encounter challenges in sustaining current levels.