W49 Tuna Update: Vietnam's Seafood Sector Signals Recovery with Notable Exports, Tuna Challenges and Global Price Shifts
Positive Export Growth and Dividend Payouts Signal Recovery in Vietnam’s Seafood Sector
Recent announcements of significant dividend payments by two prominent seafood industry enterprises suggest a positive trajectory for the sector's recovery. The Việt Nam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) reported a 6% year-on-year (YoY) increase in seafood exports in Nov-23, reaching nearly USD 840 million. Notably, primary product exports, excluding shellfish, experienced growth in shrimp (4%), tuna (26%), pangasius (12%), squid and octopus (3%), and other sea fish (4%), indicating a robust performance in the Vietnam seafood industry, with demand for various products driving export growth.
Tuna exports from January to November this year amounted to approximately USD 774 million, marking an 18% YoY decline. Despite an overall decrease, there are positive signals for the tuna sector, with growing imports observed in various markets, including the European Union (EU), Thailand, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Korea, the Philippines, and Japan, offsetting the 35% YoY decrease in exports to the United States (US). Notably, steamed tuna loin products and canned tuna are experiencing better demand compared to frozen fish fillets and cut pieces.
Export sales from other Vietnamese fish types, predominantly marine fish, reached USD 1.74 billion by Nov-23, reflecting a 7% YoY decrease. Tuna is expected to reach USD 850 million, marking a 15% YoY decline. In Nov-23, tuna exports surged to USD 81 million, a substantial 26.3% month-on-month (MoM) increase.
Tuna Price Decline in Bangkok Amid Production Trends and Ecuador's Strategic Sourcing
In W49, the price of Bangkok tuna (bonito) continued its descent, registering a decline of USD 50 to 100 per metric ton (mt) and reaching USD 1,500/mt. The persistent upward trend in production levels raises concerns about further price reductions. Reports highlight a robust fishing output in the Western and Central Pacific region, ensuring a steady supply from canneries. However, the potential for sustained favorable fishing conditions may introduce additional downward pressure on prices in Bangkok. Concurrently, the European canning industry grapples with challenges, including obstacles in terminal sales, escalating olive oil prices, high-interest rates, and supermarket resistance to price increases.
In Manta, Ecuador, tuna prices dipped to USD 1,650 to USD 1,700/mt on Dec-23. Some Ecuadorian manufacturers opt to source raw materials from the Western Pacific, capitalizing on relatively favorable fishing conditions in the Eastern Pacific, where approximately 30% of fishing boats remain in port for rest. As a result, Ecuadorian prices do not significantly surpass those in Bangkok. The Indian Ocean witnessed constraints on fishing activities, notably with fish aggregating devices (FADs). In the Northwestern Seychelles, prices range from USD 1,590 to USD 1,618/mt due to diminished production levels compared to previous years. Notably, several Spanish vessels have halted operations after reaching their yellowfin tuna quotas. In the Atlantic, a three-month FAD fishing moratorium is slated to commence in Jan-24, leading to concentrated fishing efforts in the southern region and relatively subdued production. Prices in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, and Ghana currently range from USD 1,590 to USD 1,618/mt.